Bipartisan consensus that a sovereign default would trigger severe market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and damage to the dollar's reserve status drives near-certain trader expectations against a U.S. default by 2027. Congress raised the debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025, and current debt levels near $40.3 trillion point to a potential breach in 2027, yet historical precedent shows repeated use of extraordinary measures and last-minute ceiling adjustments to avoid missed payments. Recent discussions of a lame-duck increase further reduce near-term risks. While elevated yields and interest costs above $1 trillion annually highlight fiscal pressures, primary-source projections and institutional safeguards indicate any standoff would resolve before an actual default occurs. Extreme partisan gridlock or unforeseen shocks remain the main variables that could shift these odds.