Traders assign a 98% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026, reflecting the consistent congressional record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit before it binds. The limit currently stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with outstanding debt near $40.3 trillion and projections indicating the ceiling will not be reached until 2027 even without extraordinary measures. Lawmakers face strong incentives to act through appropriations vehicles or continuing resolutions to avoid payment disruptions, market volatility, and credit rating consequences. While post-election negotiations or funding deadlines could introduce brief uncertainty, historical patterns and the severe economic costs of any missed Treasury obligation sustain the market's strong consensus against default in the resolution window.