Major credit rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt following Moody’s one-notch downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025 and prior moves by S&P and Fitch to AA+, embedding the 79.5% market-implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public approaching 120% of GDP by 2036, remain key rating challenges, yet the U.S. economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and deep capital markets provide resilience. Trader consensus reflects the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025, though November 2026 mid-term elections and sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP represent potential swing factors at future review dates.