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icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

24% tsansa
Polymarket

$10,064 Vol.

24% tsansa
Polymarket

$10,064 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable outlooks following Moody's Aa1 cut from Aaa in May 2025 and Fitch's AA+ affirmation with stable outlook in January 2026. Persistent fiscal challenges—including a projected $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit per CBO and roughly $9 trillion in Treasury maturities—elevate long-term debt sustainability risks, yet are offset by the dollar's reserve currency status, economic resilience, and stable 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2%. Key swing factors include potential debt ceiling brinkmanship, estimated for late 2026 or 2027, alongside routine agency rating reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,064
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable outlooks following Moody's Aa1 cut from Aaa in May 2025 and Fitch's AA+ affirmation with stable outlook in January 2026. Persistent fiscal challenges—including a projected $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit per CBO and roughly $9 trillion in Treasury maturities—elevate long-term debt sustainability risks, yet are offset by the dollar's reserve currency status, economic resilience, and stable 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2%. Key swing factors include potential debt ceiling brinkmanship, estimated for late 2026 or 2027, alongside routine agency rating reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,064
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 24% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 24¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 24% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $10.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 5, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" ay 24% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 24% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.