Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness have driven overwhelming trader consensus for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting, lifting the policy rate from 0.75%. Reuters economist surveys show 94% anticipating the move, aligning with Governor Ueda’s hawkish guidance and resilient first-quarter GDP amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. The implied probability exceeds 98% given the proximity to decision day and limited scope for surprises. Unexpectedly soft incoming data or a sharp escalation in geopolitical risks could still prompt a hold, though both scenarios carry minimal market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update25 bps increase 98.7%
No change <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$541,384 Vol.
$541,384 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
<1%
No change
1%
25 bps increase
99%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 98.7%
No change <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$541,384 Vol.
$541,384 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$89,564 Vol.
<1%
No change
$139,794 Vol.
1%
25 bps increase
$135,684 Vol.
99%
50+ bps increase
$176,342 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness have driven overwhelming trader consensus for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting, lifting the policy rate from 0.75%. Reuters economist surveys show 94% anticipating the move, aligning with Governor Ueda’s hawkish guidance and resilient first-quarter GDP amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. The implied probability exceeds 98% given the proximity to decision day and limited scope for surprises. Unexpectedly soft incoming data or a sharp escalation in geopolitical risks could still prompt a hold, though both scenarios carry minimal market-implied odds.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$541,384Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness have driven overwhelming trader consensus for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting, lifting the policy rate from 0.75%. Reuters economist surveys show 94% anticipating the move, aligning with Governor Ueda’s hawkish guidance and resilient first-quarter GDP amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. The implied probability exceeds 98% given the proximity to decision day and limited scope for surprises. Unexpectedly soft incoming data or a sharp escalation in geopolitical risks could still prompt a hold, though both scenarios carry minimal market-implied odds.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$541,384Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and yen weakness have driven overwhelming trader consensus for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting, lifting the policy rate from 0.75%. Reuters economist surveys show 94% anticipating the move, aligning with Governor Ueda’s hawkish guidance and resilient first-quarter GDP amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. The implied probability exceeds 98% given the proximity to decision day and limited scope for surprises. Unexpectedly soft incoming data or a sharp escalation in geopolitical risks could still prompt a hold, though both scenarios carry minimal market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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