Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and party apparatus. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption and loyalty enforcement measures, have removed potential rival networks without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The absence of verifiable coup signals amid China’s opaque elite politics, combined with the military’s institutional obedience and lack of independent power centers, underpins traders’ 95.5% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. Remaining uncertainty stems from low-probability shocks such as sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocation, or major external crises that could realign elite incentives within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5% โอกาส
$154,289 ปริมาณ
$154,289 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
$154,289 ปริมาณ
$154,289 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and party apparatus. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption and loyalty enforcement measures, have removed potential rival networks without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The absence of verifiable coup signals amid China’s opaque elite politics, combined with the military’s institutional obedience and lack of independent power centers, underpins traders’ 95.5% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. Remaining uncertainty stems from low-probability shocks such as sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocation, or major external crises that could realign elite incentives within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154,289วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and party apparatus. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption and loyalty enforcement measures, have removed potential rival networks without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The absence of verifiable coup signals amid China’s opaque elite politics, combined with the military’s institutional obedience and lack of independent power centers, underpins traders’ 95.5% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. Remaining uncertainty stems from low-probability shocks such as sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocation, or major external crises that could realign elite incentives within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154,289วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and party apparatus. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption and loyalty enforcement measures, have removed potential rival networks without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The absence of verifiable coup signals amid China’s opaque elite politics, combined with the military’s institutional obedience and lack of independent power centers, underpins traders’ 95.5% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. Remaining uncertainty stems from low-probability shocks such as sudden leadership health events, severe economic dislocation, or major external crises that could realign elite incentives within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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