Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 77% implied probability, driven by persistent generic congressional ballot leads averaging D+6 as of May 8 per Nate Silver's tracker, up slightly from prior weeks amid President Trump's approval rating plunging to 34% on Reuters/Ipsos polling due to high gas prices near $4.45/gallon, the ongoing Iran conflict, and economic discontent. Historical midterm dynamics favor the out-party, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, amplified by a record 38 Republican House retirements and Democrats' 14-point enthusiasm edge reminiscent of 2006. Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 rejection of a Democratic-favored redistricting map shifted Sabato's ratings closer (R 211, D 208, 16 tossups), but national polling trends sustain optimism for Democratic gains ahead of November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$41,498 ปริมาณ
$41,498 ปริมาณ
Nov 30, 2026
$41,498 ปริมาณ
$41,498 ปริมาณ
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 77% implied probability, driven by persistent generic congressional ballot leads averaging D+6 as of May 8 per Nate Silver's tracker, up slightly from prior weeks amid President Trump's approval rating plunging to 34% on Reuters/Ipsos polling due to high gas prices near $4.45/gallon, the ongoing Iran conflict, and economic discontent. Historical midterm dynamics favor the out-party, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, amplified by a record 38 Republican House retirements and Democrats' 14-point enthusiasm edge reminiscent of 2006. Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 rejection of a Democratic-favored redistricting map shifted Sabato's ratings closer (R 211, D 208, 16 tossups), but national polling trends sustain optimism for Democratic gains ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 77% implied probability, driven by persistent generic congressional ballot leads averaging D+6 as of May 8 per Nate Silver's tracker, up slightly from prior weeks amid President Trump's approval rating plunging to 34% on Reuters/Ipsos polling due to high gas prices near $4.45/gallon, the ongoing Iran conflict, and economic discontent. Historical midterm dynamics favor the out-party, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, amplified by a record 38 Republican House retirements and Democrats' 14-point enthusiasm edge reminiscent of 2006. Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 rejection of a Democratic-favored redistricting map shifted Sabato's ratings closer (R 211, D 208, 16 tossups), but national polling trends sustain optimism for Democratic gains ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—control of both House and Senate—at 77% implied probability, driven by persistent generic congressional ballot leads averaging D+6 as of May 8 per Nate Silver's tracker, up slightly from prior weeks amid President Trump's approval rating plunging to 34% on Reuters/Ipsos polling due to high gas prices near $4.45/gallon, the ongoing Iran conflict, and economic discontent. Historical midterm dynamics favor the out-party, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, amplified by a record 38 Republican House retirements and Democrats' 14-point enthusiasm edge reminiscent of 2006. Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 rejection of a Democratic-favored redistricting map shifted Sabato's ratings closer (R 211, D 208, 16 tossups), but national polling trends sustain optimism for Democratic gains ahead of November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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