AIPAC-endorsed candidates in the defined group of 34 have largely advanced through contested Democratic and Republican primaries held through early August 2026, with only isolated defeats recorded despite substantial spending by aligned super PACs in several districts. Earlier losses, such as those in Illinois House races and select New York contests, account for the bulk of the tally, while heavy investments in high-profile tests like Michigan’s Senate primary reinforced the pattern of most endorsees prevailing. Traders assign overwhelming probability to exactly 2–3 total losses because the list skews toward incumbents and well-funded contenders who cleared primary hurdles with limited opposition success. Late results from August 4 contests or any overlooked upsets could still shift the final count, though such outcomes would require unexpected vote swings against established frontrunners.