**The leading 8°C outcome at 85% implied probability reflects observed overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds on September 22, 2026, which produced a verified minimum near 8°C at major Toronto stations.** Environment Canada and model consensus (including GFS) had pointed to a low around 9°C, but actual hourly readings bottomed at 8°C in the pre-dawn hours before rising steadily to a daytime high near 17°C. This aligns closely with late-September climatology for the region, where high-pressure dominance and dry air favor efficient surface cooling without extreme cold-air advection. Lower-probability options such as 7°C (48%) capture residual uncertainty around station-specific readings or slight model under-forecasting of boundary-layer mixing, while sub-3°C or 9°C+ outcomes remain heavily discounted due to the absence of supporting synoptic features like stronger winds or cloud cover that would alter the temperature trajectory. Official post-event data releases are expected to confirm the exact minimum and drive final market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
8°C 99%
7°C 95%
4°C 63%
3°C 52%
$534 Vol.
$534 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
31%
3°C
52%
4°C
63%
5°C
52%
6°C
52%
7°C
95%
8°C
99%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
8°C 99%
7°C 95%
4°C 63%
3°C 52%
$534 Vol.
$534 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
$10 Vol.
31%
3°C
$10 Vol.
52%
4°C
$15 Vol.
63%
5°C
$73 Vol.
52%
6°C
$25 Vol.
52%
7°C
$25 Vol.
95%
8°C
$110 Vol.
99%
9°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The leading 8°C outcome at 85% implied probability reflects observed overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds on September 22, 2026, which produced a verified minimum near 8°C at major Toronto stations.**
Environment Canada and model consensus (including GFS) had pointed to a low around 9°C, but actual hourly readings bottomed at 8°C in the pre-dawn hours before rising steadily to a daytime high near 17°C. This aligns closely with late-September climatology for the region, where high-pressure dominance and dry air favor efficient surface cooling without extreme cold-air advection.
Lower-probability options such as 7°C (48%) capture residual uncertainty around station-specific readings or slight model under-forecasting of boundary-layer mixing, while sub-3°C or 9°C+ outcomes remain heavily discounted due to the absence of supporting synoptic features like stronger winds or cloud cover that would alter the temperature trajectory. Official post-event data releases are expected to confirm the exact minimum and drive final market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$534End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The leading 8°C outcome at 85% implied probability reflects observed overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds on September 22, 2026, which produced a verified minimum near 8°C at major Toronto stations.**
Environment Canada and model consensus (including GFS) had pointed to a low around 9°C, but actual hourly readings bottomed at 8°C in the pre-dawn hours before rising steadily to a daytime high near 17°C. This aligns closely with late-September climatology for the region, where high-pressure dominance and dry air favor efficient surface cooling without extreme cold-air advection.
Lower-probability options such as 7°C (48%) capture residual uncertainty around station-specific readings or slight model under-forecasting of boundary-layer mixing, while sub-3°C or 9°C+ outcomes remain heavily discounted due to the absence of supporting synoptic features like stronger winds or cloud cover that would alter the temperature trajectory. Official post-event data releases are expected to confirm the exact minimum and drive final market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$534End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The leading 8°C outcome at 85% implied probability reflects observed overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds on September 22, 2026, which produced a verified minimum near 8°C at major Toronto stations.** Environment Canada and model consensus (including GFS) had pointed to a low around 9°C, but actual hourly readings bottomed at 8°C in the pre-dawn hours before rising steadily to a daytime high near 17°C. This aligns closely with late-September climatology for the region, where high-pressure dominance and dry air favor efficient surface cooling without extreme cold-air advection. Lower-probability options such as 7°C (48%) capture residual uncertainty around station-specific readings or slight model under-forecasting of boundary-layer mixing, while sub-3°C or 9°C+ outcomes remain heavily discounted due to the absence of supporting synoptic features like stronger winds or cloud cover that would alter the temperature trajectory. Official post-event data releases are expected to confirm the exact minimum and drive final market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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