Recent weather model runs and official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate the overnight minimum in Moscow on September 23 will reach approximately 10–12°C under cloudy skies with light showers and southeasterly flow. Global Forecast System (GFS) guidance and hourly analyses show temperatures bottoming near 11–12°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime maxima of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's strong consensus on a 10°C low. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of model consensus, climatological norms for late September, and real-time observational trends rather than any single outlier projection. A later-than-expected clearing trend or stronger-than-forecast radiational cooling could push the recorded minimum below 10°C, while delayed cloud cover or warmer advection might keep it above that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 23?
10°C 97%
9°C or below 5%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
5%
10°C
97%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
10°C 97%
9°C or below 5%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
$15 Vol.
5%
10°C
$18 Vol.
97%
11°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model runs and official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate the overnight minimum in Moscow on September 23 will reach approximately 10–12°C under cloudy skies with light showers and southeasterly flow. Global Forecast System (GFS) guidance and hourly analyses show temperatures bottoming near 11–12°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime maxima of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's strong consensus on a 10°C low. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of model consensus, climatological norms for late September, and real-time observational trends rather than any single outlier projection. A later-than-expected clearing trend or stronger-than-forecast radiational cooling could push the recorded minimum below 10°C, while delayed cloud cover or warmer advection might keep it above that threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$652End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model runs and official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate the overnight minimum in Moscow on September 23 will reach approximately 10–12°C under cloudy skies with light showers and southeasterly flow. Global Forecast System (GFS) guidance and hourly analyses show temperatures bottoming near 11–12°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime maxima of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's strong consensus on a 10°C low. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of model consensus, climatological norms for late September, and real-time observational trends rather than any single outlier projection. A later-than-expected clearing trend or stronger-than-forecast radiational cooling could push the recorded minimum below 10°C, while delayed cloud cover or warmer advection might keep it above that threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$652End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model runs and official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate the overnight minimum in Moscow on September 23 will reach approximately 10–12°C under cloudy skies with light showers and southeasterly flow. Global Forecast System (GFS) guidance and hourly analyses show temperatures bottoming near 11–12°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime maxima of 17–19°C, aligning with the market's strong consensus on a 10°C low. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of model consensus, climatological norms for late September, and real-time observational trends rather than any single outlier projection. A later-than-expected clearing trend or stronger-than-forecast radiational cooling could push the recorded minimum below 10°C, while delayed cloud cover or warmer advection might keep it above that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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