**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 22 reflects tight clustering around 23–26°C, driven by typical late-monsoon conditions with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light variable winds limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance and model consensus point to overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F), with persistent cloud cover and elevated dew points around 24°C suppressing further drops. Recent PAGASA updates and ensemble runs show partly cloudy to cloudy skies with thunderstorm chances, which can either trap heat or enhance localized cooling depending on timing and intensity. The near-even odds between 23–26°C capture genuine uncertainty in exact minimums from microscale variations in rainfall and wind, while probabilities drop sharply below 23°C or above 26°C due to historical September baselines and current atmospheric stability. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 22?
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
22°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
21°C or below
47%
22°C
47%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
50%
26°C
51%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
22°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
47%
22°C
$5 Vol.
47%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$3 Vol.
50%
26°C
$40 Vol.
51%
27°C
$590 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 22 reflects tight clustering around 23–26°C, driven by typical late-monsoon conditions with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light variable winds limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance and model consensus point to overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F), with persistent cloud cover and elevated dew points around 24°C suppressing further drops. Recent PAGASA updates and ensemble runs show partly cloudy to cloudy skies with thunderstorm chances, which can either trap heat or enhance localized cooling depending on timing and intensity. The near-even odds between 23–26°C capture genuine uncertainty in exact minimums from microscale variations in rainfall and wind, while probabilities drop sharply below 23°C or above 26°C due to historical September baselines and current atmospheric stability. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$662End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 22 reflects tight clustering around 23–26°C, driven by typical late-monsoon conditions with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light variable winds limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance and model consensus point to overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F), with persistent cloud cover and elevated dew points around 24°C suppressing further drops. Recent PAGASA updates and ensemble runs show partly cloudy to cloudy skies with thunderstorm chances, which can either trap heat or enhance localized cooling depending on timing and intensity. The near-even odds between 23–26°C capture genuine uncertainty in exact minimums from microscale variations in rainfall and wind, while probabilities drop sharply below 23°C or above 26°C due to historical September baselines and current atmospheric stability. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$662End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 22 reflects tight clustering around 23–26°C, driven by typical late-monsoon conditions with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light variable winds limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance and model consensus point to overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F), with persistent cloud cover and elevated dew points around 24°C suppressing further drops. Recent PAGASA updates and ensemble runs show partly cloudy to cloudy skies with thunderstorm chances, which can either trap heat or enhance localized cooling depending on timing and intensity. The near-even odds between 23–26°C capture genuine uncertainty in exact minimums from microscale variations in rainfall and wind, while probabilities drop sharply below 23°C or above 26°C due to historical September baselines and current atmospheric stability. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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