Ongoing Iranian missile and drone strikes on Bahrain since February 2026, primarily targeting U.S. Fifth Fleet facilities, continue to shape trader views on any near-term targeting market. Bahrain’s air defenses intercepted fresh Iranian projectiles as recently as mid-October, while Tehran issued warnings against Bahrain permitting attacks from its territory and threatened shipping near Bahraini ports. Bahrain has led multilateral calls at the UN for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, stripped citizenships linked to Iranian actions, and maintained its alignment with Gulf partners and the Abraham Accords. Diplomatic proposals from Iran on Hormuz access and nuclear talks, alongside scheduled GCC-Russia meetings, remain key variables that could influence escalation or de-escalation through the resolution window.