Recent Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including seizure of Mokha port and Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have heightened the risk of successful strikes on commercial vessels, supporting elevated implied probabilities on near-term Polymarket resolutions. Since July, at least 12 attacks or attempts have targeted ships, including Saudi-flagged tankers like the Amzan, prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope that adds 10–14 days and roughly $0.9–1 million per voyage while reducing strait transits. These developments strain global supply chains already pressured by Hormuz disruptions, lifting insurance premiums, freight rates, and exposure for energy exports. Saudi crude output has fallen sharply, with markets pricing in further volatility ahead of potential escalation or de-escalation tied to regional diplomacy.