Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate overnight lows in Chengdu near 20–21°C amid persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover on September 23. These conditions limit radiative cooling at the surface, supporting the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C as the most probable minimum. Recent days have featured similar patterns with lows of 20–21°C under comparable moisture and weak winds, consistent with September climatology where average nighttime temperatures decline from late-summer peaks. Model consensus shows limited cooling potential due to high humidity and overcast skies, though slight variations in rainfall timing or clearing could shift the exact low by 1°C. New observational data through the pre-dawn hours will further refine trader assessments of the resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
19°C 98%
15°C or below 25%
18°C 10%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
15°C or below
25%
16°C
<1%
17°C
7%
18°C
10%
19°C
98%
20°C
-
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 98%
15°C or below 25%
18°C 10%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
15°C or below
$100 Vol.
25%
16°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$15 Vol.
98%
20°C
$66 Vol.
-
21°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate overnight lows in Chengdu near 20–21°C amid persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover on September 23. These conditions limit radiative cooling at the surface, supporting the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C as the most probable minimum. Recent days have featured similar patterns with lows of 20–21°C under comparable moisture and weak winds, consistent with September climatology where average nighttime temperatures decline from late-summer peaks. Model consensus shows limited cooling potential due to high humidity and overcast skies, though slight variations in rainfall timing or clearing could shift the exact low by 1°C. New observational data through the pre-dawn hours will further refine trader assessments of the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$747End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate overnight lows in Chengdu near 20–21°C amid persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover on September 23. These conditions limit radiative cooling at the surface, supporting the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C as the most probable minimum. Recent days have featured similar patterns with lows of 20–21°C under comparable moisture and weak winds, consistent with September climatology where average nighttime temperatures decline from late-summer peaks. Model consensus shows limited cooling potential due to high humidity and overcast skies, though slight variations in rainfall timing or clearing could shift the exact low by 1°C. New observational data through the pre-dawn hours will further refine trader assessments of the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$747End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate overnight lows in Chengdu near 20–21°C amid persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover on September 23. These conditions limit radiative cooling at the surface, supporting the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C as the most probable minimum. Recent days have featured similar patterns with lows of 20–21°C under comparable moisture and weak winds, consistent with September climatology where average nighttime temperatures decline from late-summer peaks. Model consensus shows limited cooling potential due to high humidity and overcast skies, though slight variations in rainfall timing or clearing could shift the exact low by 1°C. New observational data through the pre-dawn hours will further refine trader assessments of the resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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