**Trader consensus strongly favors a low of 72-73°F in Austin on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s amid ongoing late-summer heat.** National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs project a low near 76-78°F under partly cloudy skies with light east-to-southeast winds and only a slight storm chance. This aligns with recent climatological conditions, as central Texas has remained under a warm, stable air mass with daytime highs near 96-100°F and minimal nocturnal cooling. Historical September averages (around 66°F) are not relevant here due to the current anomalous warmth. The 95% implied probability on 72-73°F incorporates minor model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler pockets in urban or sheltered areas. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of drier, cooler air or heavier overnight cloud cover and rain that enhances radiational cooling—developments not supported by current NWS or ensemble guidance. Updated forecast discussions or real-time observations from Austin stations could still shift sentiment if they deviate from the mid-70s baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 22?
72-73°F 95%
68-69°F 43%
67°F or below 25%
74-75°F <1%
$524 Vol.
$524 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
67°F or below
25%
68-69°F
43%
70-71°F
-
72-73°F
95%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 95%
68-69°F 43%
67°F or below 25%
74-75°F <1%
$524 Vol.
$524 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
25%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
43%
70-71°F
$6 Vol.
-
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
95%
74-75°F
$126 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$30 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$230 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$67 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a low of 72-73°F in Austin on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s amid ongoing late-summer heat.**
National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs project a low near 76-78°F under partly cloudy skies with light east-to-southeast winds and only a slight storm chance. This aligns with recent climatological conditions, as central Texas has remained under a warm, stable air mass with daytime highs near 96-100°F and minimal nocturnal cooling. Historical September averages (around 66°F) are not relevant here due to the current anomalous warmth.
The 95% implied probability on 72-73°F incorporates minor model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler pockets in urban or sheltered areas. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of drier, cooler air or heavier overnight cloud cover and rain that enhances radiational cooling—developments not supported by current NWS or ensemble guidance. Updated forecast discussions or real-time observations from Austin stations could still shift sentiment if they deviate from the mid-70s baseline.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$524End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a low of 72-73°F in Austin on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s amid ongoing late-summer heat.**
National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs project a low near 76-78°F under partly cloudy skies with light east-to-southeast winds and only a slight storm chance. This aligns with recent climatological conditions, as central Texas has remained under a warm, stable air mass with daytime highs near 96-100°F and minimal nocturnal cooling. Historical September averages (around 66°F) are not relevant here due to the current anomalous warmth.
The 95% implied probability on 72-73°F incorporates minor model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler pockets in urban or sheltered areas. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of drier, cooler air or heavier overnight cloud cover and rain that enhances radiational cooling—developments not supported by current NWS or ensemble guidance. Updated forecast discussions or real-time observations from Austin stations could still shift sentiment if they deviate from the mid-70s baseline.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$524End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a low of 72-73°F in Austin on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s amid ongoing late-summer heat.** National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs project a low near 76-78°F under partly cloudy skies with light east-to-southeast winds and only a slight storm chance. This aligns with recent climatological conditions, as central Texas has remained under a warm, stable air mass with daytime highs near 96-100°F and minimal nocturnal cooling. Historical September averages (around 66°F) are not relevant here due to the current anomalous warmth. The 95% implied probability on 72-73°F incorporates minor model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler pockets in urban or sheltered areas. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of drier, cooler air or heavier overnight cloud cover and rain that enhances radiational cooling—developments not supported by current NWS or ensemble guidance. Updated forecast discussions or real-time observations from Austin stations could still shift sentiment if they deviate from the mid-70s baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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