**Stable high-pressure conditions and light winds are driving the market-implied odds toward an 11°C or 10°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 22, 2026.** Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF show overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with temperatures bottoming out near 12–13°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime highs around 19–20°C. Light southerly to westerly winds (generally under 5–10 km/h) limit mixing, while dew points in the 11–12°C range support modest cooling without widespread fog or precipitation. Historical September climatology for the city places average minima near 12°C, so current guidance aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than extremes. Recent model runs have shown little shift, keeping the 11°C outcome at 87.5% implied probability as the consensus low, with 10°C retaining secondary support at 46.5% amid minor uncertainty in exact timing of the daily minimum. Upcoming hourly observations from official stations will refine resolution as the calendar day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
11°C 97%
8°C 17%
9°C 17%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
-
11°C
89%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 97%
8°C 17%
9°C 17%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
7°C or below
$8 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
17%
9°C
$0 Vol.
17%
10°C
$30 Vol.
-
11°C
$362 Vol.
89%
12°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable high-pressure conditions and light winds are driving the market-implied odds toward an 11°C or 10°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 22, 2026.**
Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF show overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with temperatures bottoming out near 12–13°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime highs around 19–20°C. Light southerly to westerly winds (generally under 5–10 km/h) limit mixing, while dew points in the 11–12°C range support modest cooling without widespread fog or precipitation.
Historical September climatology for the city places average minima near 12°C, so current guidance aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than extremes. Recent model runs have shown little shift, keeping the 11°C outcome at 87.5% implied probability as the consensus low, with 10°C retaining secondary support at 46.5% amid minor uncertainty in exact timing of the daily minimum. Upcoming hourly observations from official stations will refine resolution as the calendar day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$559End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable high-pressure conditions and light winds are driving the market-implied odds toward an 11°C or 10°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 22, 2026.**
Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF show overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with temperatures bottoming out near 12–13°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime highs around 19–20°C. Light southerly to westerly winds (generally under 5–10 km/h) limit mixing, while dew points in the 11–12°C range support modest cooling without widespread fog or precipitation.
Historical September climatology for the city places average minima near 12°C, so current guidance aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than extremes. Recent model runs have shown little shift, keeping the 11°C outcome at 87.5% implied probability as the consensus low, with 10°C retaining secondary support at 46.5% amid minor uncertainty in exact timing of the daily minimum. Upcoming hourly observations from official stations will refine resolution as the calendar day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$559End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Stable high-pressure conditions and light winds are driving the market-implied odds toward an 11°C or 10°C minimum in Amsterdam on September 22, 2026.** Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF show overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with temperatures bottoming out near 12–13°C in the early morning hours before rising to daytime highs around 19–20°C. Light southerly to westerly winds (generally under 5–10 km/h) limit mixing, while dew points in the 11–12°C range support modest cooling without widespread fog or precipitation. Historical September climatology for the city places average minima near 12°C, so current guidance aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than extremes. Recent model runs have shown little shift, keeping the 11°C outcome at 87.5% implied probability as the consensus low, with 10°C retaining secondary support at 46.5% amid minor uncertainty in exact timing of the daily minimum. Upcoming hourly observations from official stations will refine resolution as the calendar day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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