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Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$705,609 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$705,609 Объем

Polymarket

UAE

$154,345 Объем

15%

Saudi Arabia

$130,664 Объем

14%

Bahrain

$7,479 Объем

5%

Kuwait

$4,122 Объем

4%

Turkey

$22,989 Объем

4%

Any E.U. Country

$10,732 Объем

4%

UK

$113,297 Объем

3%

Qatar

$1,261 Объем

3%

Jordan

$1,373 Объем

3%

France

$152,785 Объем

3%

Oman

$1,308 Объем

2%

Germany

$82,509 Объем

1%

Canada

$22,745 Объем

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, initiating a conflict now entering its sixth week with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities by more than 90%. Iran has fired missile barrages at Israel—including a major attack injuring 14 yesterday—and US bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices. President Trump stated yesterday that core objectives near completion, hinting at an end soon amid mediated talks Iran is reviewing, postponing some strikes. No other nations, including Gulf allies absorbing Iranian attacks, have joined direct military action; traders eye potential US ground operations, further diplomacy, or escalation before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$705,609
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, initiating a conflict now entering its sixth week with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities by more than 90%. Iran has fired missile barrages at Israel—including a major attack injuring 14 yesterday—and US bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices. President Trump stated yesterday that core objectives near completion, hinting at an end soon amid mediated talks Iran is reviewing, postponing some strikes. No other nations, including Gulf allies absorbing Iranian attacks, have joined direct military action; traders eye potential US ground operations, further diplomacy, or escalation before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$705,609
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 13 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «UAE» с 14%, за ним следует «Saudi Arabia» с 14%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 14¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 14%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $705.6K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?», просмотри 13 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?» — «UAE» с 14%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 14%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Saudi Arabia» с 14%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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