OpenAI's latest GPT-5.4 and Codex models command a commanding 99.7% implied probability on Polymarket, driven by their unchallenged lead in the LiveBench coding average score—the market's sole resolution criterion as of March 31, 2026, noon ET. Recent leaderboard updates confirm OpenAI's edge over rivals like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which dominates SWE-bench Verified at 76.8% but trails here, reflecting superior agentic coding and reasoning in LiveBench's contamination-free tasks. Trader consensus, backed by over $1.1 million in volume, anticipates no last-minute shifts despite Anthropic's strong showings elsewhere; realistic challenges include a pre-deadline score submission from Google Gemini or Claude surpassing OpenAI, or an alphabetical tiebreaker favoring earlier-named firms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУ какой компании будет лучшая модель ИИ для кодирования 31 марта?
У какой компании будет лучшая модель ИИ для кодирования 31 марта?
OpenAI 99.8%
Anthropic <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,210,151 Объем
$1,210,151 Объем

OpenAI
100%

Anthropic
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

xAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
OpenAI 99.8%
Anthropic <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,210,151 Объем
$1,210,151 Объем

OpenAI
100%

Anthropic
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

xAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 1:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's latest GPT-5.4 and Codex models command a commanding 99.7% implied probability on Polymarket, driven by their unchallenged lead in the LiveBench coding average score—the market's sole resolution criterion as of March 31, 2026, noon ET. Recent leaderboard updates confirm OpenAI's edge over rivals like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which dominates SWE-bench Verified at 76.8% but trails here, reflecting superior agentic coding and reasoning in LiveBench's contamination-free tasks. Trader consensus, backed by over $1.1 million in volume, anticipates no last-minute shifts despite Anthropic's strong showings elsewhere; realistic challenges include a pre-deadline score submission from Google Gemini or Claude surpassing OpenAI, or an alphabetical tiebreaker favoring earlier-named firms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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