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Политика·Суды

Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?

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Политика·Суды

Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?

97% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
97% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump signed an executive order on March 31 directing federal agencies like the US Postal Service and Social Security Administration to create citizenship-verified lists for mail-in ballots, prompting swift lawsuits from over 20 Democratic-led states—including New York AG Letitia James and California AG Rob Bonta—and voting rights groups like the ACLU and Brennan Center. Filed in federal district courts since April 2, these challenges allege unconstitutional federal overreach into state-controlled election administration, mirroring precedents where prior Trump voting EOs faced preliminary injunctions within weeks. Trader consensus at 97% Yes anticipates an expedited court block in April via temporary restraining order or injunction, though DOJ defenses, delayed hearings, or appeals could theoretically prevent resolution by month-end.

On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,870
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 4:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump signed an executive order on March 31 directing federal agencies like the US Postal Service and Social Security Administration to create citizenship-verified lists for mail-in ballots, prompting swift lawsuits from over 20 Democratic-led states—including New York AG Letitia James and California AG Rob Bonta—and voting rights groups like the ACLU and Brennan Center. Filed in federal district courts since April 2, these challenges allege unconstitutional federal overreach into state-controlled election administration, mirroring precedents where prior Trump voting EOs faced preliminary injunctions within weeks. Trader consensus at 97% Yes anticipates an expedited court block in April via temporary restraining order or injunction, though DOJ defenses, delayed hearings, or appeals could theoretically prevent resolution by month-end.

On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,870
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 4:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Текущая вероятность для «Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?» составляет 97% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 97%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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