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Экономика·Показатели

Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал

Market icon
Экономика·Показатели

Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал

<0% 97.0%

2–3% <1%

0–2% <1%

3-4% <1%

Polymarket

$298,965 Объем

<0% 97.0%

2–3% <1%

0–2% <1%

3-4% <1%

Polymarket

$298,965 Объем

<0%

$37,217 Объем

97%

0–2%

$11,623 Объем

1%

2–3%

$16,127 Объем

1%

3-4%

$39,970 Объем

1%

4-5%

$51,649 Объем

<1%

5-6%

$44,433 Объем

<1%

6–8%

$56,484 Объем

1%

8-10%

$19,080 Объем

<1%

10%+

$22,382 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 returns, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid heightened recession risks and stalled monetary easing. Surging Treasury yields—10-year at 4.35% following hotter-than-expected January CPI (up 3.0% YoY)—and robust nonfarm payrolls have dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring valuations in a high multiple market trading near 22x forward earnings. Tech sector rotation out of megacaps amid AI spending concerns and President Trump's tariff proposals have exacerbated the YTD decline to -4.2% as of late February. Upside challenges would require softer February inflation data ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting or unexpected earnings beats, though crowded short positioning limits sharp reversals.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Объем
$298,965
Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 returns, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid heightened recession risks and stalled monetary easing. Surging Treasury yields—10-year at 4.35% following hotter-than-expected January CPI (up 3.0% YoY)—and robust nonfarm payrolls have dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring valuations in a high multiple market trading near 22x forward earnings. Tech sector rotation out of megacaps amid AI spending concerns and President Trump's tariff proposals have exacerbated the YTD decline to -4.2% as of late February. Upside challenges would require softer February inflation data ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting or unexpected earnings beats, though crowded short positioning limits sharp reversals.

Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 returns, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid heightened recession risks and stalled monetary easing. Surging Treasury yields—10-year at 4.35% following hotter-than-expected January CPI (up 3.0% YoY)—and robust nonfarm payrolls have dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring valuations in a high multiple market trading near 22x forward earnings. Tech sector rotation out of megacaps amid AI spending concerns and President Trump's tariff proposals have exacerbated the YTD decline to -4.2% as of late February. Upside challenges would require softer February inflation data ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting or unexpected earnings beats, though crowded short positioning limits sharp reversals.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «<0%» с 97%, за ним следует «0–2%» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 97¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $299K с момента запуска рынка Jan 14, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал» — «<0%» с 97%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Следующий ближайший исход — «0–2%» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Показатели S&P 500 за 1 квартал» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.