Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell at 64% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantage in the D+29 district, and substantial fundraising edge with nearly $850,000 cash on hand versus Bush's $200,000 as of late 2025. Bush, at 31%, campaigns on progressive priorities like Medicare for All and criticizing corporate and AIPAC influence—backed by Justice Democrats—after AIPAC's $8.5 million outside spending helped unseat her previously. The March 31 filing deadline confirmed the high-profile rematch, but no public polls have surfaced, with local voter priorities centering on jobs and services over foreign policy debates amid ongoing U.S.-Israel tensions. Fundraising reports and endorsements from Congressional Black Caucus PAC for Bell could further shape odds ahead of the open primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУэсли Белл
64%
Кори Буш
31%
Уэсли Белл
64%
Кори Буш
31%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell at 64% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantage in the D+29 district, and substantial fundraising edge with nearly $850,000 cash on hand versus Bush's $200,000 as of late 2025. Bush, at 31%, campaigns on progressive priorities like Medicare for All and criticizing corporate and AIPAC influence—backed by Justice Democrats—after AIPAC's $8.5 million outside spending helped unseat her previously. The March 31 filing deadline confirmed the high-profile rematch, but no public polls have surfaced, with local voter priorities centering on jobs and services over foreign policy debates amid ongoing U.S.-Israel tensions. Fundraising reports and endorsements from Congressional Black Caucus PAC for Bell could further shape odds ahead of the open primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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