Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$10,169 Объем
$10,169 Объем
4 авг. 2026 г.
Уэсли Белл
66%
Кори Буш
34%
$10,169 Объем
$10,169 Объем
4 авг. 2026 г.
Уэсли Белл
$5,395 Объем
66%
Кори Буш
$4,773 Объем
34%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Объем
$10,169Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$10,169Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a trader consensus edge at 65.5% implied probability over challenger Cori Bush's 35% in the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 4, reflecting incumbency advantages after his narrow 2024 primary win amid heavy outside spending against Bush. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) showed them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability, yet traders appear skeptical of the internal survey and prioritize Bell's established voter base and resources. In the first candidate forum last week, Bush attended in person while Bell sent a surrogate due to a scheduling conflict, underscoring a competitive rematch in this St. Louis-area battleground.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы