Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—well above the 60,000 median forecast—signaling labor market resilience after February's surprise -92,000 contraction. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks positioned current 3.50%-3.75% rates in a "good place" amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. The March dot plot still envisions one 2026 cut, likely later, tempering 25 basis point decrease odds to 11.5%; hikes remain marginal at 4.5% combined. Watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNo change 82%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,256,992 Объем
$3,256,992 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
12%
No change
82%
25 bps increase
4%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 82%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,256,992 Объем
$3,256,992 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$83,559 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$64,358 Объем
12%
No change
$74,193 Объем
82%
25 bps increase
$2,924,434 Объем
4%
50+ bps increase
$110,447 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—well above the 60,000 median forecast—signaling labor market resilience after February's surprise -92,000 contraction. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks positioned current 3.50%-3.75% rates in a "good place" amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. The March dot plot still envisions one 2026 cut, likely later, tempering 25 basis point decrease odds to 11.5%; hikes remain marginal at 4.5% combined. Watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$3,256,992Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—well above the 60,000 median forecast—signaling labor market resilience after February's surprise -92,000 contraction. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks positioned current 3.50%-3.75% rates in a "good place" amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. The March dot plot still envisions one 2026 cut, likely later, tempering 25 basis point decrease odds to 11.5%; hikes remain marginal at 4.5% combined. Watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$3,256,992Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—well above the 60,000 median forecast—signaling labor market resilience after February's surprise -92,000 contraction. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks positioned current 3.50%-3.75% rates in a "good place" amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. The March dot plot still envisions one 2026 cut, likely later, tempering 25 basis point decrease odds to 11.5%; hikes remain marginal at 4.5% combined. Watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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