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Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

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Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

$498,683 Vol.

30 jul 2026
Polymarket

$498,683 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$59,256 Vol.

72%

Jacob Tsimerman

$52,020 Vol.

71%

Jack Thorne

$99,435 Vol.

47%

John Pardon

$83,869 Vol.

38%

Yu Deng

$112,751 Vol.

34%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$84,299 Vol.

29%

Aleksandr Logunov

$186 Vol.

26%

Sam Raskin

$2,447 Vol.

23%

Alexander Efimov

$519 Vol.

11%

Will Sawin

$3,902 Vol.

9%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Speculation centers on mathematicians like Hong Wang, whose proof of the Kakeya set conjecture has fueled frontrunner buzz in math communities, alongside Jacob Tsimerman for number theory breakthroughs and Jack Thorne for arithmetic geometry advances highlighted in recent profiles. Online forums such as Reddit's r/math actively debate these candidates' eligibility under the under-40 rule, drawing parallels to past winners' major problem resolutions. A fresh controversy erupted April 17 as over 2,100 mathematicians threatened to boycott the U.S.-hosted International Congress of Mathematicians (July 23–30, Philadelphia), citing immigration policies and geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting attendance but not the secretive IMU selection. Plenary invitations offer subtle precursor signals amid high uncertainty until the opening ceremony announcement.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$498,683
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Speculation centers on mathematicians like Hong Wang, whose proof of the Kakeya set conjecture has fueled frontrunner buzz in math communities, alongside Jacob Tsimerman for number theory breakthroughs and Jack Thorne for arithmetic geometry advances highlighted in recent profiles. Online forums such as Reddit's r/math actively debate these candidates' eligibility under the under-40 rule, drawing parallels to past winners' major problem resolutions. A fresh controversy erupted April 17 as over 2,100 mathematicians threatened to boycott the U.S.-hosted International Congress of Mathematicians (July 23–30, Philadelphia), citing immigration policies and geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting attendance but not the secretive IMU selection. Plenary invitations offer subtle precursor signals amid high uncertainty until the opening ceremony announcement.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$498,683
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hong Wang" at 72%, followed by "Jacob Tsimerman" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" has generated $498.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is "Hong Wang" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jacob Tsimerman" at 71%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.