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Finanças·Capitais Próprios

O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?

Market icon
Finanças·Capitais Próprios

O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

$7.000-$7.100 35.4%

$6.500-$6.600 16%

$6.400-$6.500 12%

$6.600-$6.700 4%

Polymarket

$10,681 Vol.

$7.000-$7.100 35.4%

$6.500-$6.600 16%

$6.400-$6.500 12%

$6.600-$6.700 4%

Polymarket

$10,681 Vol.

Abaixo de $6.400

$1,166 Vol.

40%

$6.400-$6.500

$3,541 Vol.

16%

$6.500-$6.600

$2,181 Vol.

13%

$6.600-$6.700

$384 Vol.

28%

$6.700-$6.800

$652 Vol.

2%

$6.800-$6.900

$1,351 Vol.

2%

$6.900-$7.000

$281 Vol.

3%

$7.000-$7.100

$480 Vol.

35%

$7.100-$7.200

$141 Vol.

1%

$7.200-$7.300

$119 Vol.

<1%

>$7.300

$384 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close with < $6,400 leading at 38% implied probability, closely trailed by $7,000-$7,100 (36%) and $6,400-$6,500 (33.5%), highlighting intense uncertainty amid volatile geopolitics. The index plunged 1.7% to 6,368.85 on March 27—its lowest since early March—driven by oil prices surging over 4% on Iran conflict escalation, stoking inflation fears and Treasury yield spikes. Month-to-date, SPX is down ~5%, erasing prior gains from U.S. war-pause proposals. Fed's March 18 FOMC held fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing data dependence. Key differentiators: Iran de-escalation for upside rebound versus sustained oil rally capping gains; watch Friday PCE data and weekend headlines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close with < $6,400 leading at 38% implied probability, closely trailed by $7,000-$7,100 (36%) and $6,400-$6,500 (33.5%), highlighting intense uncertainty amid volatile geopolitics. The index plunged 1.7% to 6,368.85 on March 27—its lowest since early March—driven by oil prices surging over 4% on Iran conflict escalation, stoking inflation fears and Treasury yield spikes. Month-to-date, SPX is down ~5%, erasing prior gains from U.S. war-pause proposals. Fed's March 18 FOMC held fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing data dependence. Key differentiators: Iran de-escalation for upside rebound versus sustained oil rally capping gains; watch Friday PCE data and weekend headlines.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close with < $6,400 leading at 38% implied probability, closely trailed by $7,000-$7,100 (36%) and $6,400-$6,500 (33.5%), highlighting intense uncertainty amid volatile geopolitics. The index plunged 1.7% to 6,368.85 on March 27—its lowest since early March—driven by oil prices surging over 4% on Iran conflict escalation, stoking inflation fears and Treasury yield spikes. Month-to-date, SPX is down ~5%, erasing prior gains from U.S. war-pause proposals. Fed's March 18 FOMC held fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing data dependence. Key differentiators: Iran de-escalation for upside rebound versus sustained oil rally capping gains; watch Friday PCE data and weekend headlines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close with < $6,400 leading at 38% implied probability, closely trailed by $7,000-$7,100 (36%) and $6,400-$6,500 (33.5%), highlighting intense uncertainty amid volatile geopolitics. The index plunged 1.7% to 6,368.85 on March 27—its lowest since early March—driven by oil prices surging over 4% on Iran conflict escalation, stoking inflation fears and Treasury yield spikes. Month-to-date, SPX is down ~5%, erasing prior gains from U.S. war-pause proposals. Fed's March 18 FOMC held fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing data dependence. Key differentiators: Iran de-escalation for upside rebound versus sustained oil rally capping gains; watch Friday PCE data and weekend headlines.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de $6.400" at 40%, followed by "$7.000-$7.100" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?" is "Abaixo de $6.400" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$7.000-$7.100" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará em março?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.