Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened caution amid escalating Middle East tensions and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which triggered a March selloff that erased gains from January's 7,000 peak and left the index near 6,580. Recent rebounds snapped five-week losing streaks, buoyed by optimism over potential de-escalation, but major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo trimmed targets to 7,200-7,300, citing geopolitical risks curbing earnings growth projections. The Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate, paired with February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, tempers rate-cut expectations; March CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
Abaixo de $6.000 42%
$6.500-$7.000 19%
$7.000-$7.500 19%
$6.000–$6.500 17%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
42%
$6.000–$6.500
17%
$6.500-$7.000
19%
$7.000-$7.500
19%
$7.500-$8.000
6%
>$8.000
5%
Abaixo de $6.000 42%
$6.500-$7.000 19%
$7.000-$7.500 19%
$6.000–$6.500 17%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
$10,248 Vol.
42%
$6.000–$6.500
$1,119 Vol.
17%
$6.500-$7.000
$1,322 Vol.
19%
$7.000-$7.500
$704 Vol.
19%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,438 Vol.
6%
>$8.000
$1,523 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened caution amid escalating Middle East tensions and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which triggered a March selloff that erased gains from January's 7,000 peak and left the index near 6,580. Recent rebounds snapped five-week losing streaks, buoyed by optimism over potential de-escalation, but major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo trimmed targets to 7,200-7,300, citing geopolitical risks curbing earnings growth projections. The Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate, paired with February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, tempers rate-cut expectations; March CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$16,354Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened caution amid escalating Middle East tensions and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which triggered a March selloff that erased gains from January's 7,000 peak and left the index near 6,580. Recent rebounds snapped five-week losing streaks, buoyed by optimism over potential de-escalation, but major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo trimmed targets to 7,200-7,300, citing geopolitical risks curbing earnings growth projections. The Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate, paired with February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, tempers rate-cut expectations; March CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$16,354Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened caution amid escalating Middle East tensions and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which triggered a March selloff that erased gains from January's 7,000 peak and left the index near 6,580. Recent rebounds snapped five-week losing streaks, buoyed by optimism over potential de-escalation, but major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo trimmed targets to 7,200-7,300, citing geopolitical risks curbing earnings growth projections. The Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate, paired with February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, tempers rate-cut expectations; March CPI data due April 10 could shift sentiment further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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