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O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?

Market icon
Finanças·Esconder Do Novo

O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?

dez 31

dez 31

Abaixo de $6.000 42%

$6.500-$7.000 20%

$7.000-$7.500 19%

$6.000–$6.500 17%

Polymarket

$16,354 Vol.

Abaixo de $6.000 42%

$6.500-$7.000 20%

$7.000-$7.500 19%

$6.000–$6.500 17%

Polymarket

$16,354 Vol.

Abaixo de $6.000

$10,248 Vol.

42%

$6.000–$6.500

$1,119 Vol.

17%

$6.500-$7.000

$1,322 Vol.

20%

$7.000-$7.500

$704 Vol.

19%

$7.500-$8.000

$1,438 Vol.

6%

>$8.000

$1,523 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting bearish sentiment amid year-to-date declines of nearly 4% to around 6,583 and an 8% pullback from January highs near 7,000. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with just one cut projected for 2026, further delayed by stronger-than-expected March jobs data and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions complicating inflation outlook. While analyst consensus targets 7,200-7,600 based on 14% EPS growth projections, elevated valuations and recession risks have boosted odds for the <$6,000 bin over higher ranges; watch upcoming FOMC meetings and Q1 GDP for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$16,354
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting bearish sentiment amid year-to-date declines of nearly 4% to around 6,583 and an 8% pullback from January highs near 7,000. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with just one cut projected for 2026, further delayed by stronger-than-expected March jobs data and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions complicating inflation outlook. While analyst consensus targets 7,200-7,600 based on 14% EPS growth projections, elevated valuations and recession risks have boosted odds for the <$6,000 bin over higher ranges; watch upcoming FOMC meetings and Q1 GDP for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$16,354
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de $6.000" at 42%, followed by "$6.500-$7.000" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" has generated $16.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" is "Abaixo de $6.000" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$6.500-$7.000" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.