Polymarket traders price a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting bearish sentiment amid year-to-date declines of nearly 4% to around 6,583 and an 8% pullback from January highs near 7,000. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with just one cut projected for 2026, further delayed by stronger-than-expected March jobs data and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions complicating inflation outlook. While analyst consensus targets 7,200-7,600 based on 14% EPS growth projections, elevated valuations and recession risks have boosted odds for the <$6,000 bin over higher ranges; watch upcoming FOMC meetings and Q1 GDP for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
Abaixo de $6.000 42%
$6.500-$7.000 20%
$7.000-$7.500 19%
$6.000–$6.500 17%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
Abaixo de $6.000
42%
$6.000–$6.500
17%
$6.500-$7.000
20%
$7.000-$7.500
19%
$7.500-$8.000
6%
>$8.000
5%
Abaixo de $6.000 42%
$6.500-$7.000 20%
$7.000-$7.500 19%
$6.000–$6.500 17%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
Abaixo de $6.000
42%
$6.000–$6.500
17%
$6.500-$7.000
20%
$7.000-$7.500
19%
$7.500-$8.000
6%
>$8.000
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Fonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting bearish sentiment amid year-to-date declines of nearly 4% to around 6,583 and an 8% pullback from January highs near 7,000. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with just one cut projected for 2026, further delayed by stronger-than-expected March jobs data and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions complicating inflation outlook. While analyst consensus targets 7,200-7,600 based on 14% EPS growth projections, elevated valuations and recession risks have boosted odds for the <$6,000 bin over higher ranges; watch upcoming FOMC meetings and Q1 GDP for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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