Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to March WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures settling at $90+, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums from Red Sea disruptions and Houthi attacks, alongside OPEC+ production cuts limiting supply amid robust global demand signals. Recent EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 4.6 million barrel inventory draw last week, fueling bullish momentum, while China's economic stimulus measures bolster demand outlooks for 2025. The $85–$90 bin at 21% captures moderate upside scenarios, but lower bins languish below 4% due to entrenched supply tightness. Traders eye next week's OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting and upcoming inventory reports as key catalysts that could extend the rally or trigger profit-taking.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$90+ 72%
$85-$90 21%
$80-$85 3.1%
$75-$80 2.1%
$1,011,731 Vol.
$1,011,731 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<US$ 60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
2%
$80-$85
3%
$85-$90
21%
$90+
72%
$90+ 72%
$85-$90 21%
$80-$85 3.1%
$75-$80 2.1%
$1,011,731 Vol.
$1,011,731 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<US$ 60
$98,895 Vol.
<1%
$60-$65
$110,866 Vol.
<1%
$65-$70
$191,431 Vol.
1%
$70-$75
$50,217 Vol.
2%
$75-$80
$208,443 Vol.
2%
$80-$85
$134,634 Vol.
3%
$85-$90
$103,010 Vol.
21%
$90+
$114,235 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to March WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures settling at $90+, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums from Red Sea disruptions and Houthi attacks, alongside OPEC+ production cuts limiting supply amid robust global demand signals. Recent EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 4.6 million barrel inventory draw last week, fueling bullish momentum, while China's economic stimulus measures bolster demand outlooks for 2025. The $85–$90 bin at 21% captures moderate upside scenarios, but lower bins languish below 4% due to entrenched supply tightness. Traders eye next week's OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting and upcoming inventory reports as key catalysts that could extend the rally or trigger profit-taking.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$1,011,731Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to March WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures settling at $90+, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums from Red Sea disruptions and Houthi attacks, alongside OPEC+ production cuts limiting supply amid robust global demand signals. Recent EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 4.6 million barrel inventory draw last week, fueling bullish momentum, while China's economic stimulus measures bolster demand outlooks for 2025. The $85–$90 bin at 21% captures moderate upside scenarios, but lower bins languish below 4% due to entrenched supply tightness. Traders eye next week's OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting and upcoming inventory reports as key catalysts that could extend the rally or trigger profit-taking.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$1,011,731Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to March WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures settling at $90+, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums from Red Sea disruptions and Houthi attacks, alongside OPEC+ production cuts limiting supply amid robust global demand signals. Recent EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 4.6 million barrel inventory draw last week, fueling bullish momentum, while China's economic stimulus measures bolster demand outlooks for 2025. The $85–$90 bin at 21% captures moderate upside scenarios, but lower bins languish below 4% due to entrenched supply tightness. Traders eye next week's OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting and upcoming inventory reports as key catalysts that could extend the rally or trigger profit-taking.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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