Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.7% implied probability for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports falling in the 5–15% range as of March 31, driven by the current effective average rate of about 10.3% confirmed in Wharton’s March 16 analysis amid Section 301 legacies and a temporary 10% global duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs—without subsequent replacements—has solidified this status quo, while no new executive orders or USTR announcements have escalated rates in recent weeks. President Trump’s scheduled Beijing visit starting March 31 signals potential de-escalation via bilateral trade talks. Late-breaking scenarios like an emergency proclamation could shift odds, though such moves remain improbable pre-resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado10
5–15% 96.8%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,147,155 Vol.
$1,147,155 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.8%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,147,155 Vol.
$1,147,155 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$83,751 Vol.
1%
5–15%
$262,881 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$536,846 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$145,810 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$121,188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.7% implied probability for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports falling in the 5–15% range as of March 31, driven by the current effective average rate of about 10.3% confirmed in Wharton’s March 16 analysis amid Section 301 legacies and a temporary 10% global duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs—without subsequent replacements—has solidified this status quo, while no new executive orders or USTR announcements have escalated rates in recent weeks. President Trump’s scheduled Beijing visit starting March 31 signals potential de-escalation via bilateral trade talks. Late-breaking scenarios like an emergency proclamation could shift odds, though such moves remain improbable pre-resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,147,155Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.7% implied probability for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports falling in the 5–15% range as of March 31, driven by the current effective average rate of about 10.3% confirmed in Wharton’s March 16 analysis amid Section 301 legacies and a temporary 10% global duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs—without subsequent replacements—has solidified this status quo, while no new executive orders or USTR announcements have escalated rates in recent weeks. President Trump’s scheduled Beijing visit starting March 31 signals potential de-escalation via bilateral trade talks. Late-breaking scenarios like an emergency proclamation could shift odds, though such moves remain improbable pre-resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,147,155Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.7% implied probability for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports falling in the 5–15% range as of March 31, driven by the current effective average rate of about 10.3% confirmed in Wharton’s March 16 analysis amid Section 301 legacies and a temporary 10% global duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs—without subsequent replacements—has solidified this status quo, while no new executive orders or USTR announcements have escalated rates in recent weeks. President Trump’s scheduled Beijing visit starting March 31 signals potential de-escalation via bilateral trade talks. Late-breaking scenarios like an emergency proclamation could shift odds, though such moves remain improbable pre-resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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