The Bureau of Economic Analysis' February 2026 data revealed a year-to-date goods and services trade deficit down 54.8%, or $136 billion, from early 2025, as administration tariffs sharply curbed imports despite record exports. However, the monthly gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion, beating softer forecasts amid persistent tariff turmoil and retaliatory risks from partners like China and Mexico. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 800–900B (32.5%) and 900B–1T (23.5%), reflecting doubts on sustaining Q1 narrowing against robust U.S. consumer demand boosting imports. Upcoming BEA March figures, quarterly GDP releases, and further executive trade actions could decisively shift probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$17,423 Vol.
$17,423 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
9%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
8%
700–800 bilhões
13%
800–900B
33%
900B–1T
24%
1T–1,1T
12%
1,1T+
13%
$17,423 Vol.
$17,423 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,386 Vol.
9%
500–600B
$0 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$0 Vol.
8%
700–800 bilhões
$0 Vol.
13%
800–900B
$0 Vol.
33%
900B–1T
$635 Vol.
24%
1T–1,1T
$0 Vol.
12%
1,1T+
$402 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' February 2026 data revealed a year-to-date goods and services trade deficit down 54.8%, or $136 billion, from early 2025, as administration tariffs sharply curbed imports despite record exports. However, the monthly gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion, beating softer forecasts amid persistent tariff turmoil and retaliatory risks from partners like China and Mexico. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 800–900B (32.5%) and 900B–1T (23.5%), reflecting doubts on sustaining Q1 narrowing against robust U.S. consumer demand boosting imports. Upcoming BEA March figures, quarterly GDP releases, and further executive trade actions could decisively shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$17,423Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' February 2026 data revealed a year-to-date goods and services trade deficit down 54.8%, or $136 billion, from early 2025, as administration tariffs sharply curbed imports despite record exports. However, the monthly gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion, beating softer forecasts amid persistent tariff turmoil and retaliatory risks from partners like China and Mexico. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 800–900B (32.5%) and 900B–1T (23.5%), reflecting doubts on sustaining Q1 narrowing against robust U.S. consumer demand boosting imports. Upcoming BEA March figures, quarterly GDP releases, and further executive trade actions could decisively shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$17,423Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bureau of Economic Analysis' February 2026 data revealed a year-to-date goods and services trade deficit down 54.8%, or $136 billion, from early 2025, as administration tariffs sharply curbed imports despite record exports. However, the monthly gap widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion, beating softer forecasts amid persistent tariff turmoil and retaliatory risks from partners like China and Mexico. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 800–900B (32.5%) and 900B–1T (23.5%), reflecting doubts on sustaining Q1 narrowing against robust U.S. consumer demand boosting imports. Upcoming BEA March figures, quarterly GDP releases, and further executive trade actions could decisively shift probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions