Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening to $60.3 billion in March 2026 from $57.8 billion in February, driven by a 2.3 percent rise in imports amid recovering domestic demand after the Supreme Court struck down certain 2025 tariffs. The full-year 2025 deficit totaled $901.5 billion, little changed from prior levels despite earlier tariff hikes that prompted supply-chain shifts away from China. CBO and private forecasts project modest narrowing in 2026 from lingering tariff effects and slower import growth, though stronger U.S. economic activity, energy export gains, and potential policy adjustments could push the annual figure higher. These mixed signals—recent import surges versus longer-term adjustment expectations—keep trader probabilities tightly balanced between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,128 Vol.
$21,128 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
9%
700–800 bilhões
9%
800–900B
46%
900B–1T
40%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
5%
$21,128 Vol.
$21,128 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,691 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$495 Vol.
9%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
46%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
40%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening to $60.3 billion in March 2026 from $57.8 billion in February, driven by a 2.3 percent rise in imports amid recovering domestic demand after the Supreme Court struck down certain 2025 tariffs. The full-year 2025 deficit totaled $901.5 billion, little changed from prior levels despite earlier tariff hikes that prompted supply-chain shifts away from China. CBO and private forecasts project modest narrowing in 2026 from lingering tariff effects and slower import growth, though stronger U.S. economic activity, energy export gains, and potential policy adjustments could push the annual figure higher. These mixed signals—recent import surges versus longer-term adjustment expectations—keep trader probabilities tightly balanced between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,128Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening to $60.3 billion in March 2026 from $57.8 billion in February, driven by a 2.3 percent rise in imports amid recovering domestic demand after the Supreme Court struck down certain 2025 tariffs. The full-year 2025 deficit totaled $901.5 billion, little changed from prior levels despite earlier tariff hikes that prompted supply-chain shifts away from China. CBO and private forecasts project modest narrowing in 2026 from lingering tariff effects and slower import growth, though stronger U.S. economic activity, energy export gains, and potential policy adjustments could push the annual figure higher. These mixed signals—recent import surges versus longer-term adjustment expectations—keep trader probabilities tightly balanced between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,128Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening to $60.3 billion in March 2026 from $57.8 billion in February, driven by a 2.3 percent rise in imports amid recovering domestic demand after the Supreme Court struck down certain 2025 tariffs. The full-year 2025 deficit totaled $901.5 billion, little changed from prior levels despite earlier tariff hikes that prompted supply-chain shifts away from China. CBO and private forecasts project modest narrowing in 2026 from lingering tariff effects and slower import growth, though stronger U.S. economic activity, energy export gains, and potential policy adjustments could push the annual figure higher. These mixed signals—recent import surges versus longer-term adjustment expectations—keep trader probabilities tightly balanced between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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