Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit finished 2025 at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite new tariffs that reduced the bilateral gap with China while shifting imports toward ASEAN partners. Monthly readings through March 2026 have fluctuated between roughly $55 billion and $60 billion, reflecting front-loaded import surges earlier in the tariff rollout, stronger energy exports amid geopolitical tensions, and a resilient services surplus. Traders assign the highest probabilities to an 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion outcome for the full 2026 calendar year because these levels align with the post-tariff baseline, ongoing supply-chain adjustments, and limited evidence so far that broader macroeconomic factors—such as the savings-investment balance or dollar movements—will produce a sharp deviation. Further clarity on tariff enforcement, potential court or legislative changes, or shifts in global demand could widen the gap between the two leading ranges before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
4%
700–800 bilhões
8%
800–900B
49%
900B–1T
33%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
5%
$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,638 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
4%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
49%
900B–1T
$979 Vol.
33%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit finished 2025 at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite new tariffs that reduced the bilateral gap with China while shifting imports toward ASEAN partners. Monthly readings through March 2026 have fluctuated between roughly $55 billion and $60 billion, reflecting front-loaded import surges earlier in the tariff rollout, stronger energy exports amid geopolitical tensions, and a resilient services surplus. Traders assign the highest probabilities to an 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion outcome for the full 2026 calendar year because these levels align with the post-tariff baseline, ongoing supply-chain adjustments, and limited evidence so far that broader macroeconomic factors—such as the savings-investment balance or dollar movements—will produce a sharp deviation. Further clarity on tariff enforcement, potential court or legislative changes, or shifts in global demand could widen the gap between the two leading ranges before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,010Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit finished 2025 at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite new tariffs that reduced the bilateral gap with China while shifting imports toward ASEAN partners. Monthly readings through March 2026 have fluctuated between roughly $55 billion and $60 billion, reflecting front-loaded import surges earlier in the tariff rollout, stronger energy exports amid geopolitical tensions, and a resilient services surplus. Traders assign the highest probabilities to an 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion outcome for the full 2026 calendar year because these levels align with the post-tariff baseline, ongoing supply-chain adjustments, and limited evidence so far that broader macroeconomic factors—such as the savings-investment balance or dollar movements—will produce a sharp deviation. Further clarity on tariff enforcement, potential court or legislative changes, or shifts in global demand could widen the gap between the two leading ranges before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,010Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit finished 2025 at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite new tariffs that reduced the bilateral gap with China while shifting imports toward ASEAN partners. Monthly readings through March 2026 have fluctuated between roughly $55 billion and $60 billion, reflecting front-loaded import surges earlier in the tariff rollout, stronger energy exports amid geopolitical tensions, and a resilient services surplus. Traders assign the highest probabilities to an 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion outcome for the full 2026 calendar year because these levels align with the post-tariff baseline, ongoing supply-chain adjustments, and limited evidence so far that broader macroeconomic factors—such as the savings-investment balance or dollar movements—will produce a sharp deviation. Further clarity on tariff enforcement, potential court or legislative changes, or shifts in global demand could widen the gap between the two leading ranges before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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