Recent Supreme Court rulings striking down several 2025 tariffs have eased import costs and contributed to a modest monthly widening in March 2026, while year-to-date goods and services deficits remain substantially below 2025 levels. Energy export surpluses have strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, and reciprocal trade agreements plus supply chain adjustments continue to support narrower imbalances with key partners such as China. These offsetting developments—tariff moderation boosting imports alongside export gains and diversification efforts—keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges closely matched, with separation likely hinging on further policy clarity, global demand shifts, or additional bilateral deals before year-end data finalization.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
8%
700–800 bilhões
10%
800–900B
45%
900B–1T
37%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
5%
$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,638 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$495 Vol.
8%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
45%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
37%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent Supreme Court rulings striking down several 2025 tariffs have eased import costs and contributed to a modest monthly widening in March 2026, while year-to-date goods and services deficits remain substantially below 2025 levels. Energy export surpluses have strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, and reciprocal trade agreements plus supply chain adjustments continue to support narrower imbalances with key partners such as China. These offsetting developments—tariff moderation boosting imports alongside export gains and diversification efforts—keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges closely matched, with separation likely hinging on further policy clarity, global demand shifts, or additional bilateral deals before year-end data finalization.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,075Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent Supreme Court rulings striking down several 2025 tariffs have eased import costs and contributed to a modest monthly widening in March 2026, while year-to-date goods and services deficits remain substantially below 2025 levels. Energy export surpluses have strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, and reciprocal trade agreements plus supply chain adjustments continue to support narrower imbalances with key partners such as China. These offsetting developments—tariff moderation boosting imports alongside export gains and diversification efforts—keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges closely matched, with separation likely hinging on further policy clarity, global demand shifts, or additional bilateral deals before year-end data finalization.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,075Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Supreme Court rulings striking down several 2025 tariffs have eased import costs and contributed to a modest monthly widening in March 2026, while year-to-date goods and services deficits remain substantially below 2025 levels. Energy export surpluses have strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, and reciprocal trade agreements plus supply chain adjustments continue to support narrower imbalances with key partners such as China. These offsetting developments—tariff moderation boosting imports alongside export gains and diversification efforts—keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges closely matched, with separation likely hinging on further policy clarity, global demand shifts, or additional bilateral deals before year-end data finalization.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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