Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 99.3%, reflecting the post-Supreme Court status quo after the February 20, 2026, ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, reducing the general rate from prior highs. A temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff, implemented February 24 and lasting through July 2026 unless extended by Congress, has stabilized the base rate around 10% per analyses from Wharton and Tax Foundation, incorporating remaining Section 232 duties on steel and autos but excluding product-specific spikes like 100% on electric vehicles. Recent USTR Section 301 investigations into China's excess capacity, launched March 11–13, signal potential future hikes after April hearings, while China's retaliatory probes add tension ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order reinstating reciprocal tariffs—suspended until November—or trade talk breakdowns imposing immediate surcharges, though no such moves have materialized in the past week.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,171,068 Vol.
$1,171,068 Vol.
31 mar 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
99%
15–25%
1%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
$1,171,068 Vol.
$1,171,068 Vol.
31 mar 2026
<5%
$89,823 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$267,628 Vol.
99%
15–25%
$540,409 Vol.
1%
25–35%
$149,188 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$124,020 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 99.3%, reflecting the post-Supreme Court status quo after the February 20, 2026, ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, reducing the general rate from prior highs. A temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff, implemented February 24 and lasting through July 2026 unless extended by Congress, has stabilized the base rate around 10% per analyses from Wharton and Tax Foundation, incorporating remaining Section 232 duties on steel and autos but excluding product-specific spikes like 100% on electric vehicles. Recent USTR Section 301 investigations into China's excess capacity, launched March 11–13, signal potential future hikes after April hearings, while China's retaliatory probes add tension ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order reinstating reciprocal tariffs—suspended until November—or trade talk breakdowns imposing immediate surcharges, though no such moves have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,171,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 99.3%, reflecting the post-Supreme Court status quo after the February 20, 2026, ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, reducing the general rate from prior highs. A temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff, implemented February 24 and lasting through July 2026 unless extended by Congress, has stabilized the base rate around 10% per analyses from Wharton and Tax Foundation, incorporating remaining Section 232 duties on steel and autos but excluding product-specific spikes like 100% on electric vehicles. Recent USTR Section 301 investigations into China's excess capacity, launched March 11–13, signal potential future hikes after April hearings, while China's retaliatory probes add tension ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order reinstating reciprocal tariffs—suspended until November—or trade talk breakdowns imposing immediate surcharges, though no such moves have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,171,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 99.3%, reflecting the post-Supreme Court status quo after the February 20, 2026, ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, reducing the general rate from prior highs. A temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff, implemented February 24 and lasting through July 2026 unless extended by Congress, has stabilized the base rate around 10% per analyses from Wharton and Tax Foundation, incorporating remaining Section 232 duties on steel and autos but excluding product-specific spikes like 100% on electric vehicles. Recent USTR Section 301 investigations into China's excess capacity, launched March 11–13, signal potential future hikes after April hearings, while China's retaliatory probes add tension ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order reinstating reciprocal tariffs—suspended until November—or trade talk breakdowns imposing immediate surcharges, though no such moves have materialized in the past week.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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