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Eleições·Senado

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Market icon
Eleições·Senado

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer 29%

John Thune 28%

Brian Schatz 15%

Lindsey Graham 5.5%

Polymarket

$30,902 Vol.

Chuck Schumer 29%

John Thune 28%

Brian Schatz 15%

Lindsey Graham 5.5%

Polymarket

$30,902 Vol.

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Chuck Schumer

$1,644 Vol.

29%

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John Thune

$272 Vol.

34%

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Brian Schatz

$639 Vol.

15%

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Lindsey Graham

$8,314 Vol.

6%

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Amy Klobuchar

$412 Vol.

5%

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Cory Booker

$405 Vol.

5%

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John Barrasso

$297 Vol.

5%

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Mark Kelly

$629 Vol.

4%

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Tom Cotton

$192 Vol.

4%

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Steve Daines

$18,011 Vol.

4%

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Patty Murray

$87 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.Trader consensus on the next Senate Majority Leader reflects a closely contested 2026 midterm landscape, with Republicans defending a narrow majority on a map featuring seven GOP retirements versus four Democratic ones, fueling uncertainty over party control after November elections. Incumbent Majority Leader John Thune leads narrowly amid recent backlash from House Republicans and conservative critics over Senate-passed DHS funding frameworks during the March partial shutdown, which stalled after House rejection and prompted calls for new GOP leadership from figures like Reps. John Rose and Tim Burchett. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails closely, bolstered by Democratic hopes in vulnerable GOP seats like those in Maine and North Carolina. Brian Schatz gains traction as a potential Democratic successor. Key primaries, polling shifts in battlegrounds, and further retirements could tip the balance toward separation.

Trader consensus on the next Senate Majority Leader reflects a closely contested 2026 midterm landscape, with Republicans defending a narrow majority on a map featuring seven GOP retirements versus four Democratic ones, fueling uncertainty over party control after November elections. Incumbent Majority Leader John Thune leads narrowly amid recent backlash from House Republicans and conservative critics over Senate-passed DHS funding frameworks during the March partial shutdown, which stalled after House rejection and prompted calls for new GOP leadership from figures like Reps. John Rose and Tim Burchett. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails closely, bolstered by Democratic hopes in vulnerable GOP seats like those in Maine and North Carolina. Brian Schatz gains traction as a potential Democratic successor. Key primaries, polling shifts in battlegrounds, and further retirements could tip the balance toward separation.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.Trader consensus on the next Senate Majority Leader reflects a closely contested 2026 midterm landscape, with Republicans defending a narrow majority on a map featuring seven GOP retirements versus four Democratic ones, fueling uncertainty over party control after November elections. Incumbent Majority Leader John Thune leads narrowly amid recent backlash from House Republicans and conservative critics over Senate-passed DHS funding frameworks during the March partial shutdown, which stalled after House rejection and prompted calls for new GOP leadership from figures like Reps. John Rose and Tim Burchett. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails closely, bolstered by Democratic hopes in vulnerable GOP seats like those in Maine and North Carolina. Brian Schatz gains traction as a potential Democratic successor. Key primaries, polling shifts in battlegrounds, and further retirements could tip the balance toward separation.

Trader consensus on the next Senate Majority Leader reflects a closely contested 2026 midterm landscape, with Republicans defending a narrow majority on a map featuring seven GOP retirements versus four Democratic ones, fueling uncertainty over party control after November elections. Incumbent Majority Leader John Thune leads narrowly amid recent backlash from House Republicans and conservative critics over Senate-passed DHS funding frameworks during the March partial shutdown, which stalled after House rejection and prompted calls for new GOP leadership from figures like Reps. John Rose and Tim Burchett. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails closely, bolstered by Democratic hopes in vulnerable GOP seats like those in Maine and North Carolina. Brian Schatz gains traction as a potential Democratic successor. Key primaries, polling shifts in battlegrounds, and further retirements could tip the balance toward separation.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Senate Majority Leader?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Thune" at 34%, followed by "Chuck Schumer" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Senate Majority Leader?" has generated $30.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Senate Majority Leader?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Senate Majority Leader?" is "John Thune" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Chuck Schumer" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Senate Majority Leader?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.