Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to March US monthly CPI at ≥0.8%, reflecting surging gasoline prices—up over 8% through March amid Middle East tensions and seasonal demand—and sticky shelter inflation, which accounts for over a third of the basket. This overrides economist forecasts near 0.3% headline month-over-month, as March PPI rose 0.2% core (above 0.1% expected), signaling producer cost passthrough. Lower bins trail sharply, with 0.7% at 12%, amid broader disinflation slowdown stalled by services and energy. The April 10 release looms as pivotal, potentially reshaping Fed funds rate cut expectations from June FOMC.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado≥0,8% 85%
0.7% 12%
0.6% 2.1%
0.4% 1.4%
$491,629 Vol.
$491,629 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
2%
0.7%
12%
≥0,8%
85%
≥0,8% 85%
0.7% 12%
0.6% 2.1%
0.4% 1.4%
$491,629 Vol.
$491,629 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
≤0.3%
$197,536 Vol.
1%
0.4%
$83,812 Vol.
1%
0.5%
$57,920 Vol.
1%
0.6%
$41,833 Vol.
2%
0.7%
$39,477 Vol.
12%
≥0,8%
$71,052 Vol.
85%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to March US monthly CPI at ≥0.8%, reflecting surging gasoline prices—up over 8% through March amid Middle East tensions and seasonal demand—and sticky shelter inflation, which accounts for over a third of the basket. This overrides economist forecasts near 0.3% headline month-over-month, as March PPI rose 0.2% core (above 0.1% expected), signaling producer cost passthrough. Lower bins trail sharply, with 0.7% at 12%, amid broader disinflation slowdown stalled by services and energy. The April 10 release looms as pivotal, potentially reshaping Fed funds rate cut expectations from June FOMC.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Volume
$491,629Data de Término
Apr 10, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to March US monthly CPI at ≥0.8%, reflecting surging gasoline prices—up over 8% through March amid Middle East tensions and seasonal demand—and sticky shelter inflation, which accounts for over a third of the basket. This overrides economist forecasts near 0.3% headline month-over-month, as March PPI rose 0.2% core (above 0.1% expected), signaling producer cost passthrough. Lower bins trail sharply, with 0.7% at 12%, amid broader disinflation slowdown stalled by services and energy. The April 10 release looms as pivotal, potentially reshaping Fed funds rate cut expectations from June FOMC.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$491,629Data de Término
Apr 10, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to March US monthly CPI at ≥0.8%, reflecting surging gasoline prices—up over 8% through March amid Middle East tensions and seasonal demand—and sticky shelter inflation, which accounts for over a third of the basket. This overrides economist forecasts near 0.3% headline month-over-month, as March PPI rose 0.2% core (above 0.1% expected), signaling producer cost passthrough. Lower bins trail sharply, with 0.7% at 12%, amid broader disinflation slowdown stalled by services and energy. The April 10 release looms as pivotal, potentially reshaping Fed funds rate cut expectations from June FOMC.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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