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Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11–13 29%

8–10 24%

14–16 22%

17–19 14%

Polymarket

$1,104,483 Vol.

11–13 29%

8–10 24%

14–16 22%

17–19 14%

Polymarket

$1,104,483 Vol.

<5

$160,849 Vol.

<1%

5–7

$62,921 Vol.

3%

8–10

$119,504 Vol.

24%

11–13

$377,032 Vol.

29%

14–16

$138,161 Vol.

22%

17–19

$196,259 Vol.

14%

20+

$49,758 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical baseline of approximately 15 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide per year, per USGS long-term records, with two confirmed so far in 2026—a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—leaving nine months for the remainder amid high uncertainty from the Poisson-distributed nature of seismic events. The close clustering of 11–13 (28.5%), 8–10 (23.0%), and 14–16 (22.0%) probabilities stems from steady tectonic strain accumulation in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, without recent swarms or anomalies signaling deviation; differentiation hinges on potential aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity regions such as Indonesia or the Aleutians. USGS continuous monitoring will track real-time activity, with no forecast shifts expected absent major precursors.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical baseline of approximately 15 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide per year, per USGS long-term records, with two confirmed so far in 2026—a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—leaving nine months for the remainder amid high uncertainty from the Poisson-distributed nature of seismic events. The close clustering of 11–13 (28.5%), 8–10 (23.0%), and 14–16 (22.0%) probabilities stems from steady tectonic strain accumulation in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, without recent swarms or anomalies signaling deviation; differentiation hinges on potential aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity regions such as Indonesia or the Aleutians. USGS continuous monitoring will track real-time activity, with no forecast shifts expected absent major precursors.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical baseline of approximately 15 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide per year, per USGS long-term records, with two confirmed so far in 2026—a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—leaving nine months for the remainder amid high uncertainty from the Poisson-distributed nature of seismic events. The close clustering of 11–13 (28.5%), 8–10 (23.0%), and 14–16 (22.0%) probabilities stems from steady tectonic strain accumulation in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, without recent swarms or anomalies signaling deviation; differentiation hinges on potential aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity regions such as Indonesia or the Aleutians. USGS continuous monitoring will track real-time activity, with no forecast shifts expected absent major precursors.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical baseline of approximately 15 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide per year, per USGS long-term records, with two confirmed so far in 2026—a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—leaving nine months for the remainder amid high uncertainty from the Poisson-distributed nature of seismic events. The close clustering of 11–13 (28.5%), 8–10 (23.0%), and 14–16 (22.0%) probabilities stems from steady tectonic strain accumulation in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, without recent swarms or anomalies signaling deviation; differentiation hinges on potential aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity regions such as Indonesia or the Aleutians. USGS continuous monitoring will track real-time activity, with no forecast shifts expected absent major precursors.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11–13" at 28%, followed by "8–10" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is "11–13" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8–10" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.