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Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

11°C 43%

12°C 31%

10°C 21%

9°C 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

$10,691 Vol.

11°C 43%

12°C 31%

10°C 21%

9°C 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

$10,691 Vol.

7°C or below

$748 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$657 Vol.

1%

9°C

$765 Vol.

4%

10°C

$1,041 Vol.

21%

11°C

$1,166 Vol.

43%

12°C

$999 Vol.

31%

13°C

$1,176 Vol.

4%

14°C

$2,629 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$590 Vol.

<1%

16°C

$458 Vol.

<1%

17°C or higher

$506 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, updated in the past 24 hours, project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 30 at around 11-12°C under scattered to mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability on 11°C, 31% on 12°C, and 21% on 10°C. This close clustering stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge following yesterday's 17°C+ peak, with morning temperatures near 4°C providing ample diurnal heating potential above the late-March climatological average of ~9°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud evolution—increased overcast favors 10-11°C, while transient clearer intervals support 12°C—highlighting short-range uncertainty resolved by IMGW's official Warsaw station observations by day's end.

Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, updated in the past 24 hours, project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 30 at around 11-12°C under scattered to mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability on 11°C, 31% on 12°C, and 21% on 10°C. This close clustering stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge following yesterday's 17°C+ peak, with morning temperatures near 4°C providing ample diurnal heating potential above the late-March climatological average of ~9°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud evolution—increased overcast favors 10-11°C, while transient clearer intervals support 12°C—highlighting short-range uncertainty resolved by IMGW's official Warsaw station observations by day's end.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, updated in the past 24 hours, project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 30 at around 11-12°C under scattered to mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability on 11°C, 31% on 12°C, and 21% on 10°C. This close clustering stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge following yesterday's 17°C+ peak, with morning temperatures near 4°C providing ample diurnal heating potential above the late-March climatological average of ~9°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud evolution—increased overcast favors 10-11°C, while transient clearer intervals support 12°C—highlighting short-range uncertainty resolved by IMGW's official Warsaw station observations by day's end.

Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles, updated in the past 24 hours, project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 30 at around 11-12°C under scattered to mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader consensus with 40% implied probability on 11°C, 31% on 12°C, and 21% on 10°C. This close clustering stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge following yesterday's 17°C+ peak, with morning temperatures near 4°C providing ample diurnal heating potential above the late-March climatological average of ~9°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud evolution—increased overcast favors 10-11°C, while transient clearer intervals support 12°C—highlighting short-range uncertainty resolved by IMGW's official Warsaw station observations by day's end.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11°C" at 43%, followed by "12°C" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?" is "11°C" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12°C" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.