Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 2, with 26°C leading at 28% implied probability amid clustered odds around 24–29°C, driven by early April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation where average daily highs hover at 25–27°C under the dry season's clear skies and intensifying solar insolation. Differentiating factors include potential variability from transient cloud cover, northerly winds carrying cooler air masses, or persistent high-pressure ridges favoring slight warm anomalies, as seen in historical data with standard deviations of 2–3°C. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF currently converge near 26°C, but short-term forecast divergence persists; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates over the next 48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 2?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 2?
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
24°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
12%
22°C
14%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
21%
26°C
28%
27°C
19%
28°C
18%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
39%
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
24°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
20°C or below
$273 Vol.
1%
21°C
$160 Vol.
12%
22°C
$5 Vol.
14%
23°C
$10 Vol.
17%
24°C
$10 Vol.
18%
25°C
$10 Vol.
21%
26°C
$19 Vol.
28%
27°C
$10 Vol.
19%
28°C
$5 Vol.
18%
29°C
$10 Vol.
18%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 2, with 26°C leading at 28% implied probability amid clustered odds around 24–29°C, driven by early April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation where average daily highs hover at 25–27°C under the dry season's clear skies and intensifying solar insolation. Differentiating factors include potential variability from transient cloud cover, northerly winds carrying cooler air masses, or persistent high-pressure ridges favoring slight warm anomalies, as seen in historical data with standard deviations of 2–3°C. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF currently converge near 26°C, but short-term forecast divergence persists; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates over the next 48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$532Data de Término
Apr 2, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 2, with 26°C leading at 28% implied probability amid clustered odds around 24–29°C, driven by early April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation where average daily highs hover at 25–27°C under the dry season's clear skies and intensifying solar insolation. Differentiating factors include potential variability from transient cloud cover, northerly winds carrying cooler air masses, or persistent high-pressure ridges favoring slight warm anomalies, as seen in historical data with standard deviations of 2–3°C. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF currently converge near 26°C, but short-term forecast divergence persists; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates over the next 48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$532Data de Término
Apr 2, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 2, with 26°C leading at 28% implied probability amid clustered odds around 24–29°C, driven by early April climatology at the city's 2,240-meter elevation where average daily highs hover at 25–27°C under the dry season's clear skies and intensifying solar insolation. Differentiating factors include potential variability from transient cloud cover, northerly winds carrying cooler air masses, or persistent high-pressure ridges favoring slight warm anomalies, as seen in historical data with standard deviations of 2–3°C. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF currently converge near 26°C, but short-term forecast divergence persists; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates over the next 48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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