Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Finland as the clear frontrunner at 35.8% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 in Vienna, driven by duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's high-energy "Liekinheitin," which dominated Finland's UMK national selection with rare balanced jury and televote appeal reminiscent of their 2023 runner-up "Cha Cha Cha." France follows at 14.1% thanks to Monroe's pop-infused internal selection "Look!," generating buzz for its staging potential, while Denmark's 10.2% reflects Søren Torpegaard Lund's recent rise amid strong Nordic televote momentum. Australia (6.5%) and Greece (6.4%) benefit from Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" and established fanbases, but odds remain fluid with national finals ongoing and semi-final rehearsals approaching in May.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Vencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Finlândia 35.7%
França 13.9%
Dinamarca 10.2%
Austrália 6.5%
$54,725,956 Vol.
$54,725,956 Vol.

Finlândia
36%

França
14%

Dinamarca
10%

Austrália
7%

Grécia
6%

Israel
4%

Suécia
4%

Ucrânia
3%

Itália
2%

Romênia
2%

Chéquia
1%

Chipre
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Alemanha
1%

Luxemburgo
1%

Bélgica
1%

Croácia
1%

Moldávia
1%

Noruega
1%

Suíça
1%

Reino Unido
1%

Albânia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Estônia
<1%

Letônia
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%

Geórgia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Portugal
<1%
Finlândia 35.7%
França 13.9%
Dinamarca 10.2%
Austrália 6.5%
$54,725,956 Vol.
$54,725,956 Vol.

Finlândia
36%

França
14%

Dinamarca
10%

Austrália
7%

Grécia
6%

Israel
4%

Suécia
4%

Ucrânia
3%

Itália
2%

Romênia
2%

Chéquia
1%

Chipre
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Alemanha
1%

Luxemburgo
1%

Bélgica
1%

Croácia
1%

Moldávia
1%

Noruega
1%

Suíça
1%

Reino Unido
1%

Albânia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Estônia
<1%

Letônia
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%

Geórgia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Portugal
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Finland as the clear frontrunner at 35.8% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 in Vienna, driven by duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's high-energy "Liekinheitin," which dominated Finland's UMK national selection with rare balanced jury and televote appeal reminiscent of their 2023 runner-up "Cha Cha Cha." France follows at 14.1% thanks to Monroe's pop-infused internal selection "Look!," generating buzz for its staging potential, while Denmark's 10.2% reflects Søren Torpegaard Lund's recent rise amid strong Nordic televote momentum. Australia (6.5%) and Greece (6.4%) benefit from Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" and established fanbases, but odds remain fluid with national finals ongoing and semi-final rehearsals approaching in May.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions