Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver behind the 69.5% market-implied probability for crude oil settling above $84 in June. Supply disruptions have pushed WTI futures for the June contract to approximately $106–107 per barrel in recent sessions, with production shut-ins reported across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reinforcing elevated price levels. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of persistent supply risks outweighing softer demand signals from China and record U.S. exports, while the 18.5% odds on the $77–$84 range capture potential de-escalation scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include any shifts in OPEC+ output decisions or coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases that could influence the final settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
>US$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 1.6%
$164,234 Vol.
$164,234 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>US$84
70%
>US$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 1.6%
$164,234 Vol.
$164,234 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>US$84
70%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver behind the 69.5% market-implied probability for crude oil settling above $84 in June. Supply disruptions have pushed WTI futures for the June contract to approximately $106–107 per barrel in recent sessions, with production shut-ins reported across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reinforcing elevated price levels. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of persistent supply risks outweighing softer demand signals from China and record U.S. exports, while the 18.5% odds on the $77–$84 range capture potential de-escalation scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include any shifts in OPEC+ output decisions or coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases that could influence the final settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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