Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and flawless UEFA qualification campaign, where a golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and deep midfield options has peaked at the right moment amid recent squad announcements heavy on Barcelona talent. England (12.8%), France (10.8%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely, reflecting balanced power rankings, France's fresh 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil via Mbappe and Ekitike goals, and all top contenders' early qualification security post-final draw. The bunched odds underscore the expanded 48-team field's volatility, even group draws, and no single powerhouse amid aging stars like Messi and transitional rosters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.8%
Argentina 9.9%
$406,847,578 Vol.
$406,847,578 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
Marrocos
2%
EUA
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Equador
1%
Suíça
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.8%
Argentina 9.9%
$406,847,578 Vol.
$406,847,578 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
Marrocos
2%
EUA
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Equador
1%
Suíça
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and flawless UEFA qualification campaign, where a golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and deep midfield options has peaked at the right moment amid recent squad announcements heavy on Barcelona talent. England (12.8%), France (10.8%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely, reflecting balanced power rankings, France's fresh 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil via Mbappe and Ekitike goals, and all top contenders' early qualification security post-final draw. The bunched odds underscore the expanded 48-team field's volatility, even group draws, and no single powerhouse amid aging stars like Messi and transitional rosters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions