Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA Group E qualifiers, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams driving recent Nations League form. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) keep the market bunched amid the 48-team expansion amplifying upset potential through group stage volatility and knockout unpredictability. March playoff finales decided final UEFA spots without disrupting elites, while power rankings affirm Europe's depth—12 direct qualifiers including Germany and Netherlands—against CONMEBOL's grueling table toppers, with no major injuries shifting sentiment yet.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,758,127 Vol.
$415,758,127 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,758,127 Vol.
$415,758,127 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA Group E qualifiers, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams driving recent Nations League form. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) keep the market bunched amid the 48-team expansion amplifying upset potential through group stage volatility and knockout unpredictability. March playoff finales decided final UEFA spots without disrupting elites, while power rankings affirm Europe's depth—12 direct qualifiers including Germany and Netherlands—against CONMEBOL's grueling table toppers, with no major injuries shifting sentiment yet.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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