Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public climbing toward 120% of GDP by 2036, have already prompted rating adjustments. Moody’s downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025, following S&P and Fitch moves to AA+, left all major agencies below AAA with stable outlooks, while Scope’s October 2025 cut to AA– reflected similar concerns without triggering further action. The 76.5% market-implied probability of no additional downgrade before 2027 embeds trader consensus that the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025 supports rating stability through the period, though sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP could test that view at future review dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Wol.
$10,721 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 Wol.
$10,721 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public climbing toward 120% of GDP by 2036, have already prompted rating adjustments. Moody’s downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025, following S&P and Fitch moves to AA+, left all major agencies below AAA with stable outlooks, while Scope’s October 2025 cut to AA– reflected similar concerns without triggering further action. The 76.5% market-implied probability of no additional downgrade before 2027 embeds trader consensus that the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025 supports rating stability through the period, though sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP could test that view at future review dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,721Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public climbing toward 120% of GDP by 2036, have already prompted rating adjustments. Moody’s downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025, following S&P and Fitch moves to AA+, left all major agencies below AAA with stable outlooks, while Scope’s October 2025 cut to AA– reflected similar concerns without triggering further action. The 76.5% market-implied probability of no additional downgrade before 2027 embeds trader consensus that the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025 supports rating stability through the period, though sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP could test that view at future review dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$10,721Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public climbing toward 120% of GDP by 2036, have already prompted rating adjustments. Moody’s downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025, following S&P and Fitch moves to AA+, left all major agencies below AAA with stable outlooks, while Scope’s October 2025 cut to AA– reflected similar concerns without triggering further action. The 76.5% market-implied probability of no additional downgrade before 2027 embeds trader consensus that the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025 supports rating stability through the period, though sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP could test that view at future review dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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