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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 26, 2025 ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


powell out

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

President Donald Trump is actively exploring options to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, expressing dissatisfaction with his policies and threatening swift action if he chooses to fire him. This potential move has sparked warnings from figures like Elizabeth Warren and French officials, who caution that it could destabilize the US economy and undermine the dollar's credibility.

Trump Targets Powell

REPORTER: Powell says he won't leave even if you ask him to

TRUMP: Oh, he'll leave. If I ask him to he'll be out of there ... I'm not happy with him. If I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast. Believe me.

REPORTER: Are you trying to remove him?

TRUMP: Yeah, next https://t.co/4cT0EZ4wfP

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House says President Trump is studying whether he has the ability to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://t.co/wIukMqnvc1

JUST IN: 🇫🇷🇺🇸 France says the US dollar would lose credibility if President Trump fired Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

JUST IN: Trump Prepares To FIRE Private Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell!

The Real Question Is- Will He Leave When The President Makes The Order? https://t.co/XNRLoaffkK

When Powell's term expires, Trump will likely nominate the most dovish replacement to ever chair the Fed. His nominee will be a loyal soldier willing to sacrifice the dollar and create as much inflation as needed to monetize exploding debt to keep interest rates artificially low.

Mike Davis, a former Senate lawyer whose advocacy of dictator-like presidential authorities has won Trump’s ear, said Trump surely has the right to fire Powell. “If the president does not have the authority to fire the Fed chairman, the office is unconstitutional,” he said.

Elizabeth Warren has said: If Donald Trump fires Fed Chair Powell, he will crash our markets and cause more economic pain for American families. https://t.co/i0VjfhrGul

Trump on Jerome Powell: "I think he's terrible, but I can't complain because we had the most successful administration economically in the history of our country. https://t.co/YlfMwCNeTw

WHITE HOUSE: Trump admin studying option to fire Fed chair Powell

"Fed cut 50bps in September when stock market at record high, Atlanta Fed was forecasting +3% US GDP growth.

Fed now determined not to cut rates after 20% market plunge, Atlanta Fed forecasting -3% GDP growth" - Bank of America

It's not hard to see why Trump wants Powell out. https://t.co/DDVhGzJd3S

“Powell says he won’t leave even if you ask him to.”

Trump: “Oh, he’ll leave. If I ask him to, he’ll be out of there real fast.” 

 https://t.co/tWuJsl2VMC

Trump's top economic advisor says White House is studying ways to replace Fed chair Powell https://t.co/Khdeht9R9S

The markets will crash if President Trump fired Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns Senator Elizabeth Warren 🚨🚨

 https://t.co/NqnPzyNWxi

President Donald Trump would put the credibility of the dollar on the line and destabilize the US economy if he fired Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned https://t.co/jjOXzaTPIP

“President Trump’s top economic adviser told reporters the White House is exploring how to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell despite the legal guardrails on his position.
Kevin Hassett said the WH was looking for ways to replace the Fed chief.” https://t.co/HxYjZpmj2I

President Donald Trump is actively considering replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, citing issues like renovation cost overruns and pushing for immediate interest rate cuts. Potential successors include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett, amid ongoing tensions over Fed independence and policy decisions.

Analysts say the latest dust-up between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be more than meets the eye and that markets may not be concerned enough about the situation. https://t.co/9X3auzuDAR

U.S. President Donald Trump claims he's found a way to achieve his goal of removing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, citing mismanagement of the central bank's renovation project. 

https://t.co/b4lquPPRxI

🔴 With the end in sight for Jerome Powell, the hunt for his successor begins
https://t.co/AmMzLFxtuR

Kevin Hassett es el principal candidato de Trump para reemplazar a Jerome Powell al frente de la Fed en 2025. Warsh, Bessent y Waller también están en la lista. https://t.co/kHbL870i0v

Top Overnight News

Trump said on Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be a candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but suggested that might not happen. When asked if Powell’s renovation cost overrun were a fire able offense, Trump said “I

“Ne kadar az yetenekleri varsa, o kadar çok gurur, kibir ve küstahlıkları vardır. Ancak tüm bu aptallar, kendilerini alkışlayan başka aptallar bulurlar. ”
Erasmus, Deliliğe Övgü, 1509

Trump, Powell'a hemen faiz indirsin diye bastırıyor. Fed bu yıl bildiğini okuduğunda, 2026'da https://t.co/u9EPHt7lpW

NEW: Contrary to social media rumors, Trump is not projected to try to fire Powell anytime soon.

11% chance.

J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned the White House on Tuesday, saying Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must maintain his independence despite the attacks from President Donald Trump regarding interest rates. https://t.co/NOkISaoxFe https://t.co/NfqqBZnYnW

NEW: Several Republicans left a crypto meeting with Trump under the impression he’s about to move against Jerome Powell, @meredithllee reports in today’s Inside Congress. 

Powell has insisted he’ll stay in his post.

https://t.co/8DPGfa77kw

🟡 ¡Guao! ¡Esta noticia podría volar todo, ¿en cual dirección? ¡ah bueno! El presidente Donald Trump estaría considerando seriamente reemplazar a Jerome Powell por el Secreatio del Tesoro, Scott Bessent.🇺🇲

⚠️BREAKING: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna says she heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell is getting fired — and it came “from a very serious source.” 👀👂

#AnnaPaulinaLuna #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #DeepState #BreakingNews
💥 Like, comment &amp; repost if you’re not surprised! https://t.co/aFVLXo8vCn

President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling for his resignation and advocating for interest rates to be lowered to 1-2%. Trump has expressed intentions to appoint a new Fed Chair who supports rate cuts, mentioning potential replacements like Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent, which raises concerns about the central bank's independence.

Trump Targets Fed Chair

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Trump says Fed Chair Powell is hurting the country “for years to come.” https://t.co/tZWtprZN7k

🚨 BREAKING:

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CALLS FOR FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL TO RESIGN! 🏦 

"I‘D LOVE HIM TO RESIGN - HE‘S DONE A LOUSY JOB!" 

THE CLOCK IS TICKING FOR HIM ⏰ 

A NEW FED CHAIR COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR #XRP 💎 https://t.co/BLBSoGH8fk

BREAKING: President Trump says interest rates should be at 1-2%.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says interest rates should be at 1-2%.

BREAKING: President Trump says interest rates should be as low as 1% and we have a "stupid person" at the Fed.

Trump's right again! Jerome Powell must go! https://t.co/fH92ELs31l

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump SLAMS Fed Chair Jerome Powell

"ANYBODY but Powell. He's a BAD PERSON."

"I have 3 [names]...they'd all be good."

Powell should RESIGN.

https://t.co/Kbd0ialvwr

👁‍🗨Trump’s orchestrating a takeover of The Fed...
  Trump’s battle with the Fed isn’t theater... it’s the final movement in a long, deliberate takedown...
    Every jab at Powell, every leak, every strategic appointment is part of a larger symphony, one composed to dismantle the https://t.co/Q32pUCDUd8

Imagine the people selling bitcoin when they know President Trump is going to replace Powell in a year, lower rates to 1% and print so much fucking money. https://t.co/DaHF3v9PpJ

Trump Says He Will Only Appoint Fed Chair Who Wants To Cut Interest Rates https://t.co/P29cfaEAeU

UPDATE 🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS FOR FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL TO RESIGN.

"I'D LOVE FOR HIM TO RESIGN… HE'S DONE A LOUSY JOB." https://t.co/eXJkhOi5uL

when i first said trump was going to fire powell, everyone said i was crazy and it couldn’t be done. 

doesn’t seem so crazy anymore! https://t.co/K1aoqRppxF

"I'd love him to resign if he wanted to. We should be paying 1% right now"

-- Trump, re: Powell, also labeling the Fed chair as "stupid."

Trump says "anybody but Powell" and then Maria Bartiromo mentions Kevin Hassett as a possible Fed Chair replacement (Trump seems open to the idea) https://t.co/IehSmNRB8Z

Donald Trump said he will pick a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell who wants to cut interest rates, a condition that would strike at the heart of the central bank’s independence. https://t.co/cfwq0Rp7Ah

🇺🇸 President Trump is considering replacing Jerome Powell with Scott Bessent… 

This wouldn’t be a bad idea, thoughts ? https://t.co/CiqU2mVHoH

Rumors are swirling that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may resign soon, potentially as early as today, amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. Reports also suggest Trump met with Powell recently, fueling speculation of an imminent rate cut and significant market impact.

Powell Resignation Rumors

JUST IN: Rumors are circulating Jerome Powell will resign on Monday and the Trump admin plans on lowering interest rates. 

If this happens prepare for a parabolic run.

From Yahoo: President Donald Trump on Thursday met with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for the first time in his second term, scolding him for not lowering borrowing costs. Powell maintained that any decisions won’t be based on the president’s demands.

The meeting, which https://t.co/SjDEKVcvk6

NOT CONFIRMED YET:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to resign this week (many are saying today 6/2/2025). 

If this happens, the Triangle Stranglehold is almost done...we just need President Trump to get the swamp members in Congress expelled as Trump has mentioned https://t.co/UClbYYRpxK

🚨 RUMOR:

FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL WILL RESIGN SOON AND THE TRUMP ADMIN PLANS TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.

IF TRUE… BIGGEST BULL MARKET EVER INCOMING! https://t.co/vocy6dCuRw

Moments after promising a bunch of trade deals over the next two weeks or so, Lutnick says, "the president is just gonna determine what rates people have. If they can't get a deal done, President Trump is gonna determine what deal there is gonna be." https://t.co/PU2MciN4aS

RUMOR 🚨 JEROME POWELL MIGHT RESIGN LATER TODAY 

AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL MOVE TO CUT RATES IMMEDIATELY AFTER 👀 https://t.co/x36eMUgUoH

🚨 Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday, June 2 at 1PM — his first public remarks since last week’s meeting with Trump.

Rumors circulating President Trump will fire Fed Chairman Powell https://t.co/qCnI0C1kDi

🚨RUMORS:

TRUMP ALLEGEDLY FIRES JEROME POWELL! 🇺🇸 

THIS COULD HAVE A ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL SECTOR! 🏦 #XRP https://t.co/vtfmm5tfhn

Jerome Powell to resign.

Rates cuts are coming.

Altcoins will explode.

Next targets:

$BTC — $150K
$ETH — $5K
$SOL — $500

Here’s Trump’s hidden playbook — and the timeline for the next crypto explosion 👇🧵 https://t.co/YLXk0hUuKC

Presidents Trump Is Unleashing a Golden Age of Prosperity — NOW JEROME POWELL/THE FED MUST CUT RATES!

Four-Time Crystal Ball Award Winner, Economic Guru Barry Habib Joins The Roger Stone Show on 77WABC to Discuss This, &amp; MORE.

🎧 LISTEN LIVE — 8 PM ET: https://t.co/53a3PGgGCw https://t.co/BV06qQWGOD

Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks today at 1 PM ET.

Rumors are floating that Trump wants Powell out to secure rate cuts, and Powell could resign soon.

What do you think will happen today?

Will Powell resign today? https://t.co/BH8lLYqz1t

🚨 BREAKING:

THERE ARE RUMORS THAT JEROME POWELL COULD RESIGN TODAY

Previously, Powell met with Trump at the White House on Friday

An unplanned speech by Powell is scheduled for 8:00 p.m.

Very interesting

FINALLY NO MORE DUMPS OF OUR BAGS?! https://t.co/0PHboikifc

President Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell and push for rate cuts 💥 https://t.co/4NlA0MG4Dn

🚨 CHATTER: POWELL MAY STEP DOWN TODAY

Rumors swirl that Trump wants him out to secure rate cuts.

If Powell quits? 

Markets might panic.

This isn’t just about lower rates.

It’s about whether the Fed still holds its independence.

Watch 1 PM ET. 

This could be decisive. https://t.co/wGLvadkLr1

Hearing chatter that Powell might step down today, some say Trump’s pushing him out to get those rate cuts.

Sure, some folks are hyped. “Money printer go brrr” and all that.

But if Powell actually quits? Markets might freak out.

Why? It’s not just about rate cuts. It’s about

WATCH LIVE: Powell delivers remarks as Trump pushes budget that could add $5.1 trillion in debt https://t.co/hrmzewbPAz

🔴LIVE: POWELL SPEAKS AS TRUMP BUDGET PUSHES DEBT https://t.co/iEDCjYP0Oj

🚨LISTEN NOW

Award-Winning Economic Analyst Barry Habib Says: “TRUMP IS RIGHT—TIME FOR THE FED TO CUT RATES!”

The Roger Stone Show on 77WABC Radio!

🎧 ICYMI: https://t.co/H6OOx7p8wa https://t.co/iivlPu410E

Will Jerome Powell resign this week? 

•Met with Trump last week in private 

•SCOTUS decision allows Trump to fire him. 

•Trump has vowed to replace him. 

Rumors are circulating that this week will bring the end of Powell.

🚨⚠️ Kash Patel warns about the Federal Reserve being a private entity and the public needs to be educated about it.

Remember how Emmanuel Macron aggressively warned the U.S. when Trump said he would fire Jerome Powell? https://t.co/H2UHqsblQj

Market will likely chop until Powell speaks at 1PM Eastern today.
Powell met with Trump last week and PCE inflation data hit a 4 year low last Friday.
Will he now finally talk about a possible rate cut?

1pm EST Today!

J Powell is scheduled to speak. 

It's the first time he is speaking since been invited to the WhiteHouse by Trump 👀 https://t.co/M4dMro5xho

Volitility Alert guys⚡️⚡️

Rumors are there that Chair Jerome Powell will officially resign today, and the Trump Administration is expected to cut rates immediately following his resignation.

All eyes on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at 1 PM ET.

Will he hint at rate https://t.co/GG5qfSTYBg

President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, labeling him as incompetent and a 'Trump hater' while pushing for significant interest rate cuts. Trump's escalating criticism, echoed by figures like Senator Tommy Tuberville, has intensified discussions around Powell's tenure despite earlier indications he might not pursue dismissal.

Trump Threatens Powell Firing

Jerome Powell is a Democratic Party operative masquerading as a neutral arbiter of monetary policy. Trump should announce his replacement now so Powell becomes a sort of “lame duck” for the rest of his term. https://t.co/qsSP85SbEM

Trump calls Fed Chair Jerome Powell (who he appointed) a “numbskull,” a “dumb guy and an obvious Trump hater,” and a “total and complete moron.”

Completely unhinged https://t.co/sRSR7s9ID9

Trump on Fed Chair Powell:
“He is not a smart guy. He is worried about inflation…We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed… Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?” https://t.co/FWCls6AeCM

Trump with a massive paragraph about Fed Chair Powell just now:

He calls Powell a "numbskull," "dumb guy," and "Trump hater" who could save the US $1 trillion per year with rate cuts.

Trump concludes by saying maybe he will change his mind about firing Powell. https://t.co/kSkaeWeswF

BREAKING: Trump calls Fed Chair Jerome Powell a 'numbskull', a 'dumb guy' and a 'total and complete moron'

🚨President Trump says he may change his mind about firing “Too Late” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. https://t.co/hpcbJZjvws

🚨 BREAKING: Trump says he may change his mind about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

👀👀 https://t.co/HdMv3m4Rye

🚨 NOW: Trump called Powell a “moron,” urged cutting rates to 1–2%, and hinted he may fire him when his term ends. https://t.co/WRqsWTkjTZ

BREAKING: Trump says he may change his mind about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://t.co/mYKo3QIYqb

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he might reconsider his decision to fire Fed Chair Powell. https://t.co/BjnRsal9IG

💥BREAKING:

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE MIGHT RECONSIDER HIS DECISION TO FIRE FED CHAIR POWELL. https://t.co/CD0uYPJN6O

*TRUMP: MAY FIRE POWELL

Own Gold. 

We are an unserious country.

Trump toys with firing Jerome Powell after Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady https://t.co/kSjeCYf8Iz

That escalated quickly. Trump went from accusing Powell of being a stupid person on Wednesday to being a total and complete moron today. Trump also claims he's again thinking about firing him rather than allowing a moron to complete a full term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

🚨BREAKING:

Senator Tommy Tuberville urges the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

What’s your reaction?? https://t.co/Ec64XYbL8C

🚨トランプ大統領、あらためてパウエルFRB議長の解雇をめざす方針示唆＝RTRS

🚨TRUMP HINTS HE MAY TRY TO FIRE POWELL, CHANGING HIS MIND - RTRS

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump threatens to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a "dumb guy" and a "Trump hater."

"I don't know why the [Fed] Board doesn't override this total and complete moron. Maybe I'll have to change my mind about firing him." https://t.co/QxcWsIYXWh

🚨#BREAKING: President Donald Trump has threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a dumb guy and a Trump hater. 

Trump also added I don’t know why the Fed Board doesn’t override this total and complete moron. Maybe I’ll have to reconsider firing him https://t.co/FYQKkaQJQj

Trump may just fire Powell! 

DO IT! 💥💥💥 https://t.co/06eOPfcg6v

Because President Trump defeated Biden’s inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell needs to lower rates — or RESIGN https://t.co/CnDv9I2aU8

Should President Trump fire Jerome Powell? https://t.co/gHlR4Yu1Ip

President Trump, who last month said he wouldn't try to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026, suggested Friday he might change his mind. https://t.co/5TySGn9UDV

⚠ TRUMP: MAYBE, I'LL HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND ABOUT FIRING POWELL

Last 24 hours ....

* Fed Gov Waller said the Fed can cut in July

* Trump tore into Powell

* Sen Tuberville (R-AL) calls for Trump to fire Powell

* Lutnick tore into Powell

Despite all this, the probability of a July 30 cut (next meeting) is just 17% (83%: no move). https://t.co/1KzpbAkd0d https://t.co/RRLD8x2vAr

Trump says he may change his mind about firing Fed Chair Powell https://t.co/yDmANFi0w1 https://t.co/yDmANFi0w1

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between July 15,  and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between July 15,  and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between August 25, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Fed cuts twice
- Trump announces someone as next Fed Chair
- Powell says “Trump” during October Press Conference
- Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p3.png


Nothing Ever Happens:  Jerome Powell Edition

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on December 10, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by December 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Summers serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Summers in jail before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fetterman out before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between “No Change” and “25 bps decrease”, “No Change” becomes the favorite in the Dec 10, 2025 Fed decision market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december) for any 4 hour period ending December 9, 2025, 11:59PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“No Change” will be considered to have become the favorite for a four hour period if it is ahead of “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” in more individual minutes than “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” is ahead of “No Change” during the period.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on Federivative (https://federivative.polymarket.com/) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on Federivative with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in December?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december?tid=1764689490935) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-25bps-cut-below-90-by-december-5 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" Below 90% by December 5?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Lisa Cook between September 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Rules

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

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