Recent softening in the U.S. labor market and moderating inflation have anchored trader consensus around an 83.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds target range currently stands at 3.75–4.00%. September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, while the September CPI print showed headline inflation easing to 3.2% year-over-year and core at 2.2%, the lowest since early 2021. These data points have tempered expectations for an immediate follow-up to the September hike despite the hawkish September dot plot signaling further tightening by year-end. The October 14 CPI release remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift market-implied odds ahead of the decision.