**Persistent inflation and recent Fed communications are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the late-October FOMC meeting.** With the target range already at 3.75–4.00% after the September 25 bp hike, most participants view additional tightening as likely by year-end but prefer to await incoming data rather than act consecutively. September FOMC minutes released October 7 reinforced this stance, noting inflation has remained above target for over five years and that policy decisions will depend on evolving conditions. A hot September CPI print due this week could sustain the modest 18.5% probability of a 25 bp increase, while stable labor market readings (unemployment near 4.2%) and contained wage growth limit odds of easing. The October 28 decision and subsequent December meeting remain the key near-term catalysts.