**Recent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and upward revisions to ECB staff projections have shaped expectations for the October 2026 policy meeting.** After the September 10 hike that lifted the deposit rate to 2.50%, incoming data and surveys indicate the Governing Council is likely to pause, with analysts pointing to a potential December move as the next possible tightening step if price pressures persist. Resilient euro area growth and stable longer-term inflation expectations around 2% support measured policy, while uncertainty over second-round effects from energy costs keeps a modest probability priced for a further 25 basis point increase. Trader consensus reflects this data-dependent outlook ahead of the late-October decision.