US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while subsequent US intelligence assessments through May 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment and that the timeline to produce a weapon remains roughly one year. IAEA inspectors lost access to affected facilities after the initial strikes, and Iranian officials have stated that stockpiles of up to 60% enriched uranium remain buried under rubble with no recovery plans. Ongoing diplomatic talks have focused on demands for dismantlement and stockpile removal amid continued sanctions pressure and threats of further military action. These verified setbacks to enrichment capacity and verification gaps underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to complete a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026.