Iran's nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026, collapsing tunnel entrances at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan and trapping much of the approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these enrichment sites since early 2026, losing continuity of knowledge on stockpiles and equipment while confirming only routine activity at Bushehr. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at down-blending material under IAEA supervision collapsed within weeks, leaving the program in a dormant state with new defensive construction noted at the Pickaxe Mountain site in September 2026. Trader consensus reflects the short remaining timeframe, damaged infrastructure, and sustained international scrutiny as major barriers to weapon acquisition by the end of 2026. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected material recovery, or rapid reconstruction could still shift probabilities, though verifiable evidence of such advances remains absent.