Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February–March 2026 severely damaged Iran’s enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with multiple weaponization-related sites and centrifuge infrastructure. These actions, combined with the collapse of a short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on stockpiled enriched uranium, have left Iran’s program largely inaccessible to IAEA inspectors and without verified breakout capacity. Recent IAEA reporting through September 2026 confirms ongoing lack of access to key sites and material stockpiles, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Assessments from intelligence and nonproliferation sources indicate multi-year setbacks, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 95% probability assigned to “No.”