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icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Nuclear

Iran Nuke before 2027?

icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Nuclear

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,314,941 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,314,941 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or disabled Iran's primary uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified active enrichment. IAEA reports confirm limited access to enrichment sites since February 2026, an unaccounted stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium trapped in damaged tunnels, and referral of safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council in September 2026. An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed without restoring full verification or down-blending. Traders assign a 95 percent probability against Iran fielding a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, reflecting these setbacks and the short remaining timeline. Concealed recovery of stockpiles or accelerated covert weaponization remain low-probability scenarios that could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,314,941
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or disabled Iran's primary uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified active enrichment. IAEA reports confirm limited access to enrichment sites since February 2026, an unaccounted stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium trapped in damaged tunnels, and referral of safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council in September 2026. An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed without restoring full verification or down-blending. Traders assign a 95 percent probability against Iran fielding a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, reflecting these setbacks and the short remaining timeline. Concealed recovery of stockpiles or accelerated covert weaponization remain low-probability scenarios that could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,314,941
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran Nuke before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran Nuke before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.