Canada’s population growth has turned negative amid federal efforts to curb temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sets permanent resident targets at 380,000 while slashing new temporary arrivals to 385,000. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat overall growth for 2026—the second consecutive year—due to net outflows of non-permanent residents offsetting permanent admissions. Statistics Canada data already show two straight quarterly declines into early 2026 and the first annual drop on record for 2025. These policy shifts, aimed at easing housing and service pressures, form the primary driver behind traders assigning a 61 percent probability to a population decrease this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУвеличилось
Увеличилось
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s population growth has turned negative amid federal efforts to curb temporary resident inflows through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sets permanent resident targets at 380,000 while slashing new temporary arrivals to 385,000. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat overall growth for 2026—the second consecutive year—due to net outflows of non-permanent residents offsetting permanent admissions. Statistics Canada data already show two straight quarterly declines into early 2026 and the first annual drop on record for 2025. These policy shifts, aimed at easing housing and service pressures, form the primary driver behind traders assigning a 61 percent probability to a population decrease this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы