Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% probability to the “No” outcome for the arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of criminal investigations, indictments, or public accusations of personal wrongdoing against the executive. The company’s ongoing civil litigation with the Pentagon over supply chain risk designations and AI usage restrictions remains a regulatory and contractual matter, not a criminal proceeding targeting Amodei individually. Recent policy engagements and public statements by the CEO have centered on AI development and economic impacts without prompting law enforcement involvement. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include unexpected revelations of financial misconduct, personal legal violations, or an escalation of existing regulatory tensions into formal charges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$165,407 Vol.
$165,407 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$165,407 Vol.
$165,407 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% probability to the “No” outcome for the arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of criminal investigations, indictments, or public accusations of personal wrongdoing against the executive. The company’s ongoing civil litigation with the Pentagon over supply chain risk designations and AI usage restrictions remains a regulatory and contractual matter, not a criminal proceeding targeting Amodei individually. Recent policy engagements and public statements by the CEO have centered on AI development and economic impacts without prompting law enforcement involvement. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include unexpected revelations of financial misconduct, personal legal violations, or an escalation of existing regulatory tensions into formal charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$165,407Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% probability to the “No” outcome for the arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of criminal investigations, indictments, or public accusations of personal wrongdoing against the executive. The company’s ongoing civil litigation with the Pentagon over supply chain risk designations and AI usage restrictions remains a regulatory and contractual matter, not a criminal proceeding targeting Amodei individually. Recent policy engagements and public statements by the CEO have centered on AI development and economic impacts without prompting law enforcement involvement. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include unexpected revelations of financial misconduct, personal legal violations, or an escalation of existing regulatory tensions into formal charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$165,407Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% probability to the “No” outcome for the arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of criminal investigations, indictments, or public accusations of personal wrongdoing against the executive. The company’s ongoing civil litigation with the Pentagon over supply chain risk designations and AI usage restrictions remains a regulatory and contractual matter, not a criminal proceeding targeting Amodei individually. Recent policy engagements and public statements by the CEO have centered on AI development and economic impacts without prompting law enforcement involvement. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include unexpected revelations of financial misconduct, personal legal violations, or an escalation of existing regulatory tensions into formal charges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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