Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks to individual taxpayers funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, via executive order or legislation, reflecting no qualifying action despite repeated White House announcements since November 2025. Earlier markets for March 31 resolved No after deadlines passed without implementation, amid doubts over tariff revenue sufficiency and legal hurdles following a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs. Recent April 2 executive actions strengthened steel, aluminum, and copper import tariffs, while a business importer refund portal launches April 20 for over $127 billion in overpayments—ineligible for this market as it excludes direct citizen payouts. With under 75 days remaining, traders see slim odds of reversal absent rapid formal steps.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.06.30
신규
신규
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks to individual taxpayers funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, via executive order or legislation, reflecting no qualifying action despite repeated White House announcements since November 2025. Earlier markets for March 31 resolved No after deadlines passed without implementation, amid doubts over tariff revenue sufficiency and legal hurdles following a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs. Recent April 2 executive actions strengthened steel, aluminum, and copper import tariffs, while a business importer refund portal launches April 20 for over $127 billion in overpayments—ineligible for this market as it excludes direct citizen payouts. With under 75 days remaining, traders see slim odds of reversal absent rapid formal steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
거래량
$9,714종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks to individual taxpayers funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, via executive order or legislation, reflecting no qualifying action despite repeated White House announcements since November 2025. Earlier markets for March 31 resolved No after deadlines passed without implementation, amid doubts over tariff revenue sufficiency and legal hurdles following a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs. Recent April 2 executive actions strengthened steel, aluminum, and copper import tariffs, while a business importer refund portal launches April 20 for over $127 billion in overpayments—ineligible for this market as it excludes direct citizen payouts. With under 75 days remaining, traders see slim odds of reversal absent rapid formal steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$9,714종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks to individual taxpayers funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, via executive order or legislation, reflecting no qualifying action despite repeated White House announcements since November 2025. Earlier markets for March 31 resolved No after deadlines passed without implementation, amid doubts over tariff revenue sufficiency and legal hurdles following a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs. Recent April 2 executive actions strengthened steel, aluminum, and copper import tariffs, while a business importer refund portal launches April 20 for over $127 billion in overpayments—ineligible for this market as it excludes direct citizen payouts. With under 75 days remaining, traders see slim odds of reversal absent rapid formal steps.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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