Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$33,278 거래량
$33,278 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$33,278 거래량
$33,278 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
거래량
$33,278종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$33,278종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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