With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms under President Trump, trader consensus prices a post-election trifecta—including a 60-seat supermajority—at just 3%, driven by the formidable math of netting seven seats on a map pitting 20 GOP-held seats against 13 Democratic-held ones. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party averaging Senate losses of three seats, with supermajorities rarer still since the GOP's 1981 peak; early polls in battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina signal competitive holds rather than sweeps. While GOP retention remains favored, realistic catalysts like Democratic scandals, economic booms, or turnout surges could narrow the gap, though forecasts cap gains at 54-56 seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$68,764 거래량
$68,764 거래량
2026.11.03
예
$68,764 거래량
$68,764 거래량
2026.11.03
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms under President Trump, trader consensus prices a post-election trifecta—including a 60-seat supermajority—at just 3%, driven by the formidable math of netting seven seats on a map pitting 20 GOP-held seats against 13 Democratic-held ones. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party averaging Senate losses of three seats, with supermajorities rarer still since the GOP's 1981 peak; early polls in battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina signal competitive holds rather than sweeps. While GOP retention remains favored, realistic catalysts like Democratic scandals, economic booms, or turnout surges could narrow the gap, though forecasts cap gains at 54-56 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
거래량
$68,764종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms under President Trump, trader consensus prices a post-election trifecta—including a 60-seat supermajority—at just 3%, driven by the formidable math of netting seven seats on a map pitting 20 GOP-held seats against 13 Democratic-held ones. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party averaging Senate losses of three seats, with supermajorities rarer still since the GOP's 1981 peak; early polls in battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina signal competitive holds rather than sweeps. While GOP retention remains favored, realistic catalysts like Democratic scandals, economic booms, or turnout surges could narrow the gap, though forecasts cap gains at 54-56 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$68,764종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms under President Trump, trader consensus prices a post-election trifecta—including a 60-seat supermajority—at just 3%, driven by the formidable math of netting seven seats on a map pitting 20 GOP-held seats against 13 Democratic-held ones. Historical midterm patterns show the president's party averaging Senate losses of three seats, with supermajorities rarer still since the GOP's 1981 peak; early polls in battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina signal competitive holds rather than sweeps. While GOP retention remains favored, realistic catalysts like Democratic scandals, economic booms, or turnout surges could narrow the gap, though forecasts cap gains at 54-56 seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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