Trader consensus favors Iran successfully targeting 4–5 ships by April 30 at 45.7%, reflecting a March surge of over 20 confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—damaging at least 10 tankers and bulk carriers via drones, projectiles, and explosive boats—followed by a lull under the fragile April 8 ceasefire between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Recent April 18 gunfire on a tanker and Iranian reclosure of the strait amid U.S. naval blockade of its ports signal potential resumption, while Houthi threats to expand operations into the Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint add uncertainty. Lower probabilities for 2–3 or higher tallies account for de-escalation risks and U.S. countermeasures limiting further hits.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4~5 45.1%
2~3 34%
6~7 10.5%
10+ 8.0%
$74,395 거래량
$74,395 거래량
2026.04.30
2~3
34%
4~5
45%
6~7
11%
8~9
10%
10+
8%
4~5 45.1%
2~3 34%
6~7 10.5%
10+ 8.0%
$74,395 거래량
$74,395 거래량
2026.04.30
2~3
$15,710 거래량
34%
4~5
$16,393 거래량
45%
6~7
$5,056 거래량
11%
8~9
$8,084 거래량
10%
10+
$4,437 거래량
8%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Iran successfully targeting 4–5 ships by April 30 at 45.7%, reflecting a March surge of over 20 confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—damaging at least 10 tankers and bulk carriers via drones, projectiles, and explosive boats—followed by a lull under the fragile April 8 ceasefire between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Recent April 18 gunfire on a tanker and Iranian reclosure of the strait amid U.S. naval blockade of its ports signal potential resumption, while Houthi threats to expand operations into the Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint add uncertainty. Lower probabilities for 2–3 or higher tallies account for de-escalation risks and U.S. countermeasures limiting further hits.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
거래량
$74,395종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Iran successfully targeting 4–5 ships by April 30 at 45.7%, reflecting a March surge of over 20 confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—damaging at least 10 tankers and bulk carriers via drones, projectiles, and explosive boats—followed by a lull under the fragile April 8 ceasefire between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Recent April 18 gunfire on a tanker and Iranian reclosure of the strait amid U.S. naval blockade of its ports signal potential resumption, while Houthi threats to expand operations into the Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint add uncertainty. Lower probabilities for 2–3 or higher tallies account for de-escalation risks and U.S. countermeasures limiting further hits.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$74,395종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Iran successfully targeting 4–5 ships by April 30 at 45.7%, reflecting a March surge of over 20 confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—damaging at least 10 tankers and bulk carriers via drones, projectiles, and explosive boats—followed by a lull under the fragile April 8 ceasefire between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Recent April 18 gunfire on a tanker and Iranian reclosure of the strait amid U.S. naval blockade of its ports signal potential resumption, while Houthi threats to expand operations into the Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint add uncertainty. Lower probabilities for 2–3 or higher tallies account for de-escalation risks and U.S. countermeasures limiting further hits.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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