Florida's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following mid-decade redistricting that produced a PVI of R+8 and recent presidential results showing a 57-42 Trump margin. Incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement has created an open-seat contest, with a crowded Republican primary featuring multiple candidates on the August 18 ballot and a weaker Democratic field led by Ralph Groves. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders assign the Republican Party an 82.5% implied probability of victory because these structural factors have held firm through the filing period with no major Democratic surge or internal GOP fracture yet evident ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,517 거래량
$18,517 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
83%
민주당
15%
$18,517 거래량
$18,517 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,268 거래량
83%
민주당
$11,249 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following mid-decade redistricting that produced a PVI of R+8 and recent presidential results showing a 57-42 Trump margin. Incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement has created an open-seat contest, with a crowded Republican primary featuring multiple candidates on the August 18 ballot and a weaker Democratic field led by Ralph Groves. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders assign the Republican Party an 82.5% implied probability of victory because these structural factors have held firm through the filing period with no major Democratic surge or internal GOP fracture yet evident ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
거래량
$18,517종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following mid-decade redistricting that produced a PVI of R+8 and recent presidential results showing a 57-42 Trump margin. Incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement has created an open-seat contest, with a crowded Republican primary featuring multiple candidates on the August 18 ballot and a weaker Democratic field led by Ralph Groves. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders assign the Republican Party an 82.5% implied probability of victory because these structural factors have held firm through the filing period with no major Democratic surge or internal GOP fracture yet evident ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,517종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following mid-decade redistricting that produced a PVI of R+8 and recent presidential results showing a 57-42 Trump margin. Incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement has created an open-seat contest, with a crowded Republican primary featuring multiple candidates on the August 18 ballot and a weaker Democratic field led by Ralph Groves. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders assign the Republican Party an 82.5% implied probability of victory because these structural factors have held firm through the filing period with no major Democratic surge or internal GOP fracture yet evident ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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