Elevated geopolitical supply risks from Middle East disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have lifted WTI crude futures into the low-to-mid $90s as of late May 2026. This supports the 63% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84 by sustaining tight near-term balances and an EIA-forecast 8.5 million barrel-per-day inventory draw in the second quarter. Signs of progress toward diplomatic resolution have introduced modest downside pressure, contributing to the 18.5% odds on the $77-$84 range and the steep backwardation in the futures curve that prices in expectations of gradual supply recovery. Weekly inventory data and any shifts in refinery utilization remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트원유 (CL) 는 6월에 무엇을 정산할 예정인가요?
원유 (CL) 는 6월에 무엇을 정산할 예정인가요?
>$84 이상 63%
$77-$84 18%
$70~$77 11.7%
$63-$70 3.0%
$203,017 거래량
$203,017 거래량
2026.06.30
$42 미만
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70~$77
12%
$77-$84
18%
>$84 이상
63%
>$84 이상 63%
$77-$84 18%
$70~$77 11.7%
$63-$70 3.0%
$203,017 거래량
$203,017 거래량
2026.06.30
$42 미만
$20,391 거래량
<1%
$42-$49
$10,181 거래량
1%
$49-$56
$12,148 거래량
1%
$56-$63
$13,438 거래량
1%
$63-$70
$27,004 거래량
3%
$70~$77
$16,834 거래량
12%
$77-$84
$16,887 거래량
18%
>$84 이상
$86,135 거래량
63%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Elevated geopolitical supply risks from Middle East disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have lifted WTI crude futures into the low-to-mid $90s as of late May 2026. This supports the 63% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84 by sustaining tight near-term balances and an EIA-forecast 8.5 million barrel-per-day inventory draw in the second quarter. Signs of progress toward diplomatic resolution have introduced modest downside pressure, contributing to the 18.5% odds on the $77-$84 range and the steep backwardation in the futures curve that prices in expectations of gradual supply recovery. Weekly inventory data and any shifts in refinery utilization remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
마켓 개설일: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
거래량
$203,017종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Elevated geopolitical supply risks from Middle East disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have lifted WTI crude futures into the low-to-mid $90s as of late May 2026. This supports the 63% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84 by sustaining tight near-term balances and an EIA-forecast 8.5 million barrel-per-day inventory draw in the second quarter. Signs of progress toward diplomatic resolution have introduced modest downside pressure, contributing to the 18.5% odds on the $77-$84 range and the steep backwardation in the futures curve that prices in expectations of gradual supply recovery. Weekly inventory data and any shifts in refinery utilization remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
거래량
$203,017종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETElevated geopolitical supply risks from Middle East disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have lifted WTI crude futures into the low-to-mid $90s as of late May 2026. This supports the 63% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84 by sustaining tight near-term balances and an EIA-forecast 8.5 million barrel-per-day inventory draw in the second quarter. Signs of progress toward diplomatic resolution have introduced modest downside pressure, contributing to the 18.5% odds on the $77-$84 range and the steep backwardation in the futures curve that prices in expectations of gradual supply recovery. Weekly inventory data and any shifts in refinery utilization remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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