Recent reports of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have driven sharp selling in WTI crude, with front-month futures declining roughly 5% in recent sessions to trade near $76 per barrel as of June 17. This shift reflects trader repricing of geopolitical risk after months of production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day and steep inventory draws. Market-implied odds now embed expectations for supply normalization before month-end, outweighing EIA assumptions of sustained $105 Brent averages under a closed-strait scenario. Key near-term catalysts include any final diplomatic announcements or weekly inventory data that could alter the path to June 30 settlement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 말 ___ 이상의 원유 (CL)?
6월 말 ___ 이상의 원유 (CL)?
$145,141 거래량
2026.06.30
$90
4%
$85
30%
80달러
42%
$75
63%
$70
87%
$65
92%
$63
96%
$60
96%
$56
98%
$55
98%
$52
99%
$50
99%
$145,141 거래량
$90
$29,016 거래량
4%
$85
$8,719 거래량
30%
80달러
$6,856 거래량
42%
$75
$17,999 거래량
63%
$70
$20,744 거래량
87%
$65
$1,045 거래량
92%
$63
$9,491 거래량
96%
$60
$26,562 거래량
96%
$56
$5,222 거래량
98%
$55
$3,806 거래량
98%
$52
$6,556 거래량
99%
$50
$9,124 거래량
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Recent reports of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have driven sharp selling in WTI crude, with front-month futures declining roughly 5% in recent sessions to trade near $76 per barrel as of June 17. This shift reflects trader repricing of geopolitical risk after months of production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day and steep inventory draws. Market-implied odds now embed expectations for supply normalization before month-end, outweighing EIA assumptions of sustained $105 Brent averages under a closed-strait scenario. Key near-term catalysts include any final diplomatic announcements or weekly inventory data that could alter the path to June 30 settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
마켓 개설일: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
거래량
$145,141종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Recent reports of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have driven sharp selling in WTI crude, with front-month futures declining roughly 5% in recent sessions to trade near $76 per barrel as of June 17. This shift reflects trader repricing of geopolitical risk after months of production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day and steep inventory draws. Market-implied odds now embed expectations for supply normalization before month-end, outweighing EIA assumptions of sustained $105 Brent averages under a closed-strait scenario. Key near-term catalysts include any final diplomatic announcements or weekly inventory data that could alter the path to June 30 settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
거래량
$145,141종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETRecent reports of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have driven sharp selling in WTI crude, with front-month futures declining roughly 5% in recent sessions to trade near $76 per barrel as of June 17. This shift reflects trader repricing of geopolitical risk after months of production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day and steep inventory draws. Market-implied odds now embed expectations for supply normalization before month-end, outweighing EIA assumptions of sustained $105 Brent averages under a closed-strait scenario. Key near-term catalysts include any final diplomatic announcements or weekly inventory data that could alter the path to June 30 settlement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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